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Dependence assessment in Human Reliability Analysis based on canonical representation on fuzzy numbers and AHP

机译:基于模糊数和层次分析法典范表示的人类可靠性分析中的依赖评估

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Dependence assessment is an important issue in human reliability analysis (HRA) in large and complex systems such as nuclear power plant. It mainly includes assessment of human task dependence and its influence on the final human error probability (HEP). In this paper, a new dependence assessment method in HRA is proposed. Firstly, the dependence influencing factors and their weights are derived by domain experts. Secondly, judgments of the status of the influencing factors are given by the analyst according to the anchors and qualitative tags. Thirdly, the judgments are converted into fuzzy numbers, and further represented in the canonical form. Finally, the overall dependence degree and the conditional human error probability (CHEP) are calculated based on a computational model. The proposed method has the merits of reasonable and flexible representation of the analysts' judgments, and less subjectivity and computational complexity in the calculation of CHEP. Examples are illustrated to show the use and effectiveness of the proposed method.
机译:依赖性评估是大型复杂系统(例如核电厂)的人员可靠性分析(HRA)中的重要问题。它主要包括对人工任务依赖性及其对最终人工错误概率(HEP)的影响的评估。本文提出了一种新的HRA依赖评估方法。首先,依赖影响因素及其权重由领域专家得出。其次,分析人员根据锚点和定性标签对影响因素的状态做出判断。第三,将判断结果转换为模糊数,并进一步以规范形式表示。最后,基于计算模型计算总体依赖性程度和条件人为错误概率(CHEP)。该方法具有合理,灵活地表达分析师判断的优点,并减少了CHEP计算的主观性和计算复杂度。举例说明了该方法的使用和有效性。

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