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Crop yield variation trend and distribution pattern in recent ten years

机译：近十年农作物产量变化趋势及分布格局

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摘要

In recent ten years, a perception exists that the agricultural management and crop cultivars have been improved obviously. But the crop yield variation trend due to above reason remain unknown yet. To evaluate the main food crop (maize, soybean and rice) yield trend from 2007 to 2016, the MODIS product (MCD12Q2) was used to extract the mature date of different crops. A two-band variant of the enhanced vegetation index at mature date was applied to establish empirical yield estimation model, coupling with statistical crop yield data. The validation show the estimated yield had accuracy of 90.9%, 91.7% and 83.3%, respectively. The average maize and soybean yield in study area presented increasing trend, but rice yield presented declining. However, maize yield in 22 cities and soybean yield in 19 cities show decreasing trend actually. Through statistical analysis, the crop yield distribution pattern was proved to be almost fixed. Most cities occupies approximate position on the ranking of relevant crop yield. It was demonstrated that some cities, for example Chifeng city, was suitable to develop specific agriculture economy. This paper can be used to give suggestion for agriculture planning and management.
机译：近十年来，人们普遍认为农业管理和作物品种已得到明显改善。但是由于上述原因造成的作物单产变化趋势仍未知。为了评估2007年至2016年主要粮食作物（玉米，大豆和水稻）的产量趋势，使用MODIS产品（MCD12Q2）提取了不同作物的成熟日期。应用成熟期增强植被指数的两波段变体建立了经验性产量估算模型，并结合了统计作物产量数据。验证显示估计的产率分别为90.9％，91.7％和83.3％。研究区玉米和大豆平均单产呈上升趋势，但水稻单产呈下降趋势。然而，实际上22个城市的玉米单产和19个城市的大豆单产均呈下降趋势。通过统计分析，证明了农作物的产量分布格局几乎是固定的。大多数城市在相关农作物产量的排名中都占据着近似的位置。事实证明，一些城市，例如赤峰市，适合发展特定的农业经济。本文可为农业规划与管理提供建议。

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