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首页> 外文会议>International offshore and polar engineering conference;ISOPE-2009 >Structural Reliability Analysis for the Assessment of Ultimate Limit State of Ship's Hull
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Structural Reliability Analysis for the Assessment of Ultimate Limit State of Ship's Hull

机译：评估船体极限状态的结构可靠性分析

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摘要

The aim of the present paper is to establish a procedure of StructuralReliability Analysis (SRA) for the assessment of Ultimate Limit State(ULS) of ship's hull. A refined probabilistic models of both load(Wave-induced bending moment) and capacity (hull girder ultimatestrength) have been derived by using direct calculation methods basedon the latest analyzing techniques. An implemental procedure of SRAfor estimating the ULS of typical merchant ships has been proposed. Asapplication examples, a series of SRA by using First Order ReliabilityMethod (FORM) has been performed and the annual failure probabilityof tanker, bulk carrier and container carrier for hull girder ULS hasbeen calculated.It is found from the SRA results that the most dominant condition oftanker (VLCC) is full loading and sagging condition and the otherconditions seem to be negligible. In case of large bulk carrier, hoggingcondition is also important because of the local load effect by sea andcargo pressures together with sagging condition. Contrary to theprevious two cases, full loading and hogging condition is muchinfluential in large container carrier. Based on the obtained failureprobabilities of the applied ships, a reference value of the target failureprobability for ULS assessment by using SRA has been mentioned.
机译：本文的目的是建立一种结构可靠性分析（SRA）程序，用于评估船体的极限极限状态（ULS）。通过使用基于最新分析技术的直接计算方法，得出了荷载（波浪引起的弯矩）和承载力（船体梁的极限强度）的精确概率模型。已经提出了一种SRA估计典型商船的ULS的实现程序。作为应用实例，采用一阶可靠度方法（FORM）进行了一系列SRA计算，计算出了船体梁ULS的油轮，散货船和集装箱船的年度失效概率。 （VLCC）是满载和下垂状态，其他条件似乎可以忽略不计。在大型散货船的情况下，由于海上压力和货物压力以及下垂条件对局部载荷的影响，下陷条件也很重要。与前两种情况相反，在大型集装箱运输船中，满载和起重条件影响很大。基于获得的应用船舶的故障概率，已经提到了通过使用SRA进行ULS评估的目标故障概率的参考值。

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