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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Environmental Economics and Investment Assessment; 2006; Mykonos(GR) >Decision support for long-term water resource management in semi-arid areas: insights from South Africa
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Decision support for long-term water resource management in semi-arid areas: insights from South Africa

机译：半干旱地区长期水资源管理的决策支持：南非的见解

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摘要

Public goods, such as bulk water supply infrastructure, have proved vulnerable to failures in market and government allocation strategies. Common to both strategies are uncaptured costs and benefits. This implies a measurement problem due to shortcomings in quantification techniques for estimating costs and benefits for different market- and government-driven allocation strategies and led to decisions based on incomplete information. With legitimate decision-making depending on reliable information, the measurement problem poses an obstacle to social welfare maximisation. This paper incorporates components of economic valuation theory, multi-criteria decision analysis, a public survey and a modified Delphi expert panel technique to score the multi-criteria attributes and assign weights. The approach was applied in the Western Cape province of South Africa and specifically focused on a choice problem regarding different long-term bulk-water resource management options for the area. The decision-making context was broadened to accommodate unaccounted-for costs and benefits in water resource allocation decision-making. Both spatial and temporal dimensions of the decision-making context were expanded. The spatial expansion manifested in the physical expansion of the management area, which led to expansions in representation in the decision-making process. The temporal expansion manifested in the consideration of different sequences of bulk supply schemes over time instead of a selection of schemes at the same time. Two surveys were conducted to accommodate such expansions. The first focussed on public preferences towards long-term water allocation management and the second on inputs of members of an expert panel by means of a modified Delphi technique. Questions regarding whether, and if so, to what extent, the public needed to be accommodated in long-term water resource allocation decision-making came to the fore. A broad acceptability towards a willingness to pay for "greener" water was observed and the outcome may be used to motivate a paradigm shift among managers to consider, without fearing harm to their political positions, "greener" water supply options more seriously, even if such options imply higher direct costs.
机译：事实证明，大宗供水基础设施等公共产品容易受到市场和政府分配策略失败的影响。两种策略的共同点是未捕获的成本和收益。这意味着测量问题，这是由于量化技术的不足而无法估算出市场和政府驱动的不同分配策略的成本和收益，并导致了基于不完整信息的决策。在依靠可靠信息做出合理决策的情况下，衡量问题成为实现社会福利最大化的障碍。本文结合了经济评估理论，多准则决策分析，公众调查和经过改进的Delphi专家小组技术的组成部分，以对多准则属性进行评分并分配权重。该方法已在南非的西开普省使用，特别针对与该地区不同的长期散装水资源管理选择有关的选择问题。扩大了决策范围，以适应水资源分配决策中无法说明的成本和收益。决策环境的时空维度都得到了扩展。空间扩展体现在管理区域的物理扩展上，这导致决策过程中的代表性扩展。时间扩展表现为考虑了随着时间推移的大宗供应方案的不同顺序，而不是同时选择方案。为了适应这种扩展，进行了两次调查。第一个重点是对长期水资源分配管理的公共偏爱，第二个重点是通过改进的德尔菲技术改进专家小组成员的投入。关于是否需要以及在多大程度上需要公众参与长期水资源分配决策的问题浮出水面。观察到人们普遍愿意支付“绿色”水的意愿，其结果可用于激励管理者进行范式转换，以考虑而不担心对其政治立场造成损害的情况下，更认真地考虑“绿色”供水选项，即使这样的选择意味着更高的直接成本。

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