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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, Jun 23-28, 2002, Oslo, Norway >PROBABILISTIC INSPECTION OPTIMIZATION OF FREE-SPAN SURVEYS FOR SUBSEA GAS PIPELINES
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PROBABILISTIC INSPECTION OPTIMIZATION OF FREE-SPAN SURVEYS FOR SUBSEA GAS PIPELINES

机译：天然气管道自由跨度调查的概率检验优化

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Probabilistic methods have been used to develop the basis for free-span inspection of a gas pipeline system in the South China Sea. The objective of the probabilistic analysis was to study the probability of fatigue failure associated with postulated planar flaws in the HAZ of repair welds performed on some of the girth welds. The impact of flaws on the fatigue life under different free-span conditions were studied. Conventional free-span analysis involves computation of allowable free-span lengths based on onset of in-line vibrations and does not normally consider fatigue crack growth. To consider the effect of the weld flaws on the failure probability a combined probabilistic fatigue and fracture model is required. For the particular pipelines analysed automatic ultrasonic testing (AUT) was used replacing the conventional radiography of the girth welds. Conservatism in the free-span assessment can then be significantly reduced by taking into account detailed flaw sizing information from the AUT. The inspection records provide distribution of flaw height, length and position. Combined with information on current distribution, material strength and fracture toughness distribution, a detailed probabilistic fatigue crack growth and unstable fracture assessment can be conducted as per the Det Norske Veritas (DNV) 2000 Rules for Submarine Pipeline Systems using the response models of the DNV Guideline 14 for free-span analyses. The objective of this analysis is to estimate the critical free-span lengths and the time for fatigue cracks to penetrate the pipe wall.
机译：概率方法已被用来为南海天然气管道系统的自由跨度检查奠定基础。概率分析的目的是研究与某些环焊缝上进行的修补焊缝的热影响区中假定的平面缺陷相关的疲劳破坏概率。研究了不同自由跨度条件下缺陷对疲劳寿命的影响。常规的自由跨度分析涉及基于在线振动的发生来计算允许的自由跨度长度，并且通常不考虑疲劳裂纹的增长。为了考虑焊接缺陷对失效概率的影响，需要组合的概率疲劳和断裂模型。对于特定的分析管道，使用自动超声测试（AUT）代替了环焊缝的常规射线照相技术。然后，通过考虑来自AUT的详细缺陷尺寸确定信息，可以大大降低自由跨度评估中的保守性。检查记录提供了缺陷高度，长度和位置的分布。结合电流分布，材料强度和断裂韧性分布的信息，可以根据DNV准则的《海底管道系统的Det Norske Veritas（DNV）2000规则》进行详细的概率疲劳裂纹扩展和不稳定断裂评估14适用于自由跨度分析。该分析的目的是估计关键的自由跨度长度和疲劳裂纹穿透管壁的时间。

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