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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Port and Ocean Engineering under Arctic Conditions(POAC'05) vol.1; 20050626-3002; Potsdam,NY(US) >PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF ICEBERG SCOURING FREQUENCY BASED ON REPETITIVE SEABED MAPPING, OFFSHORE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
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PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF ICEBERG SCOURING FREQUENCY BASED ON REPETITIVE SEABED MAPPING, OFFSHORE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

机译：基于重复性海图，岸外纽芬兰和拉布拉多的冰山冲刷频率概率分析

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摘要

Seabed areas shallower than approximately 220 m water depth off eastern Newfoundland and Labrador are subject to infrequent, but damaging impacts from keel-dragging icebergs, necessitating costly protection measures for subsea facilities for offshore development projects. Appropriate measures require an accurate assessment of the iceberg scour risk at a particular location. Repetitive sidescan surveys conducted over three decades provide up to 25-year baseline for assessing seabed iceberg scour frequency in targeted areas of oil and gas basins on Grand Bank. Results provide critical groundtruth and allow calibration of probability models used to assess engineering risk for bottom-founded structures. In contrast to more dynamic sea ice regimes such as the Beaufort Sea where ice ridge keels routinely impact the shallow shelf seabed, the northeastern Canadian shelf is subject to infrequent scouring. Repetitive mapping surveys must encompass broad areas (100s of km~2) and decadal time intervals to provide statistically meaningful results. In this paper, we discuss efforts to refine the mean scour rates, and to measure the uncertainty in the estimates using Monte Carlo and Bayesian modeling techniques. A mean scour frequency rate of 4.1 x 10~(-4) scours/km~2/yr is calculated, based on repetitive mapping results to 2003.
机译：距纽芬兰东部和拉布拉多东部水深约不到220 m的海床区域很少见，但因龙骨沉没的冰山而造成的破坏性影响，因此需要为海上开发项目的海底设施采取昂贵的保护措施。适当的措施需要对特定位置的冰山冲刷风险进行准确评估。在过去的三十年中进行的重复性侧面扫描调查提供了长达25年的基线，用于评估大银行油气田目标区域海底冰山冲刷的频率。结果提供了关键的依据，并允许校准概率模型，这些概率模型用于评估底部基础结构的工程风险。与更具活力的海冰制度（例如波弗特海（Beaufort Sea））相比，冰脊龙骨通常会冲击浅层架海床，而加拿大东北部的架空则很少受到冲刷。重复的测绘调查必须涵盖广阔的区域（100公里2 km-2）和十年的时间间隔，以提供具有统计意义的结果。在本文中，我们讨论了改进平均冲刷率以及使用蒙特卡洛（Monte Carlo）和贝叶斯（Bayesian）建模技术来估计估计值的不确定性的努力。根据到2003年的重复映射结果，计算出平均冲刷频率为4.1 x 10〜（-4）scours / km〜2 / yr。

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