• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management(PSAM7-ESREL'04) v.5; 20040614-20040618; Berlin; DE >The Interpretation of Risk and Sensitivity Under the Peak-of-the-Mean Concept
【24h】

The Interpretation of Risk and Sensitivity Under the Peak-of-the-Mean Concept

机译：均值峰值概念下的风险和敏感性解释

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Although the calculation of the peak risk for the nominal case is straightforward, calculations for the disruptive case are more complicated when the event probability is small, event times are random, and effects of the releases are of relatively short duration. Analysts must guard against risk dilution caused by inappropriately increasing the bounds of the distribution of poorly known parameters, especially if these parameters affect the timing of peak dose within a realization. Finally, it is possible to conduct sensitivity analyses using doses calculated at the time corresponding to the maximum risk or using the peak dose from each Monte Carlo realization. Quantitative comparisons suggest that using the peak dose from each realization can provide greater discriminatory power. However, some parameters, especially those that determine timing of the releases, should be interpreted carefully for the impact of their associated uncertainties on system performance. NOTE: The NRC staff views expressed herein are preliminary and do not constitute a final judgment or determination of the acceptability of a license application for a geologic repository at Yucca Mountain.
机译：尽管通常情况下峰值风险的计算很简单，但当事件概率较小，事件时间是随机的且释放的影响持续时间相对较短时，破坏性情况的计算将更为复杂。分析人员必须防止因不适当增加未知参数的分布范围而引起的风险稀释，尤其是如果这些参数影响实现中峰值剂量的时间安排时。最后，可以使用在对应于最大风险的时间计算出的剂量或使用每个蒙特卡洛实现方法得出的峰值剂量进行敏感性分析。定量比较表明，使用每次实现的峰值剂量可以提供更大的区分能力。但是，应仔细解释某些参数，尤其是那些确定发布时间的参数，以了解其相关的不确定性对系统性能的影响。注意：此处表达的NRC工作人员观点是初步的，并不构成对丝兰山地质仓库许可申请可接受性的最终判断或确定。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号