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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management(PSAM7-ESREL'04) v.5; 20040614-20040618; Berlin; DE >Scenario Analysis, a Safety Engineering Design Tool
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Scenario Analysis, a Safety Engineering Design Tool

机译：方案分析，安全工程设计工具

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摘要

Based on the experiences in the Spoorzone Delft project, it may be concluded that the development of scenario analysis offers an innovative approach to the safety assessment of design alternatives in major infrastructure projects. Complementary to a QRA, this approach facilitates the involvement of non-quantifiable aspects such as rescue and emergency functions, commitment of stakeholders to the design outcomes as well as a substantive assessment of safety enhancing design measures in all steps of the civil engineering design process. With the concept of scenario analysis the safety assessment moves from 'hard', objective, criteria as personal risk and group risk standards to 'soft', subjective, criteria as perception and appreciation. Due to this movement, it is possible to assess safety 'early and high' in the decision-making process. The scenario analysis prevents the stakeholders from dealing with expensive safety measures with a limited scope, 'late and low' in the decision-making process. Major infrastructure projects are characterized by many stakeholders with different views on safety. These views can lead to conflicting interests among the stakeholders. By naming all safety aspects of the infrastructure project in the decision-making process, the commitment of stakeholders can be stimulated. In this way, the concept of 'integral' safety contributes to the progress and quality of the decision-making process. Finally, the concept of 'integral' safety also effects the assessment of the residual risks. During the decision-making process several decisions where safety is under discussion, have to be made. At these moments the residual risks become apparent. These risks need to be removed later during the decision-making process, or need to be handed over to the responsible stakeholders. At first sight, the scenario analysis proves to be effective in facilitating the selection of safety critical design alternatives. However, additional administrative instruments have to be developed in order to integrate the approach procedurally in impact statement assessments and other decision-making instruments throughout the design process and project management.
机译：根据Spoorzone Delft项目的经验，可以得出结论，情景分析的发展为重大基础设施项目中设计替代方案的安全评估提供了一种创新的方法。作为QRA的补充，此方法有助于在土木工程设计过程的所有步骤中参与不可量化的方面，例如救援和应急功能，利益相关者对设计成果的承诺以及对安全增强设计措施的实质性评估。通过情景分析的概念，安全评估从“硬性”，客观性，个人风险和群体风险标准转变为“软性”，主观性，感知和欣赏标准。由于这种运动，可以在决策过程中“尽早”评估安全性。情景分析可防止利益相关者在决策过程中处理范围有限，“事后又低”的昂贵安全措施。大型基础设施项目的特点是许多利益相关者对安全性有不同的看法。这些观点可能导致利益相关者之间利益冲突。通过在决策过程中命名基础结构项目的所有安全方面，可以激发利益相关者的承诺。这样，“整体”安全性概念有助于决策过程的进展和质量。最后，“整体”安全性的概念也会影响对剩余风险的评估。在决策过程中，必须制定一些讨论安全性的决策。在这些时候，剩余的风险变得显而易见。这些风险需要在决策过程中稍后消除，或者需要移交给负责任的利益相关者。乍一看，场景分析被证明可以有效地促进安全关键设计方案的选择。但是，必须开发其他管理工具，以便在整个设计过程和项目管理过程中将方法以程序方式整合到影响声明评估和其他决策工具中。

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