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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management(PSAM7-ESREL'04) v.6; 20040614-20040618; Berlin; DE >Public perceptions of risk in relation to large scale environmental projects: a Multi-attribute Decision Making method
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Public perceptions of risk in relation to large scale environmental projects: a Multi-attribute Decision Making method

机译：公众对大型环境项目的风险感知：多属性决策方法

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Increasingly, societal and public concerns are forcing organizations to take a wider view of engineering design and decision-making and to engage with major projects in a way that they had not anticipated, e.g. Shell and the Brent Spar. Perceptions of trust and decisions about scientific issues are changing and are becoming more empowered and widely publicised scientific uncertainties and disagreements have had a profound impact on public confidence. Engineering design decisions are often made using expertise of design engineers, project managers and external regulatory and advisory authorities. There are not only ethical reasons for the public to be represented but also their perception of the risks may add information and local knowledge to the decision model. Allowing the public to participate in decision making reassures them that the right decisions are being made and allows for greater predictability as their reactions can be assessed much earlier in the design process avoiding any backlash at a later, and costlier, stage. People are more concerned with risk possibility than probability and often use existing cognitive heuristics to process this. The degree of risk attributed to an event by society may be augmented by controllability, social equity, familiarity and issue salience. Factors which can increase risk perception may be captured in order to develop indices for inclusion in design decision making. Several theories have attempted to account for responses to personal risk but explaining the sometimes extreme and non-rational responses in societal terms is more difficult. Thus, informing decision making at the design stage of any large sustainable development presents a problem. In multiple attribute decision making (MADM), the decision problem is modelled in terms of the attributes of feasible alternatives and an optimal solution is achieved through a process of trade off. The difficulty in integrating environmental and societal issues with traditional design criteria is that they can be complex, subjective and uncertain. A fuzzy set approach allows for this uncertainty whilst also enabling an option to be evaluated. Ordinary people are often confronted with linguistic terms relating to scientific measures which they are obliged to interpret (e.g. "the pollen count is high"). MADM may be used so variables in the fuzzy sets can be assessed by linguistic terms instead of numerical values. The use of natural language allows a more direct representation of information in situations too complex or uncertain for a precise quantitative term. The meaning of linguistic terms requires identification, and, where there is more than one person making the attribution, some form of weighting such as linguistic ordered weighted average (LOWA). The notion of LOWA allows phrases with which people are familiar to be equated to pre-determined levels of particular issues, and to be combined to form an 'average' using a recursive process of pairwise convex combinations. However, if designers are to anticipate potential problems, best and worst scenarios must both be considered. Experts will each have different types of specialised knowledge, necessitating weights to reflect this; MADM presents a solution by incorporating further weighting according to expertise and using these as multipliers in relation to the importance of the issues. So using expert-defined linguistic operators offers a real possibility of understanding public perception of risk associated with a project.
机译：越来越多的社会和公众关注迫使组织更广泛地了解工程设计和决策，并以他们未曾预料的方式参与重大项目，例如壳牌公司和Brent Spar公司。人们对科学问题的信任和决定的观念正在发生变化，并且正变得越来越强大，并且广泛传播的科学不确定性和分歧对公众的信心产生了深远的影响。工程设计决策通常是利用设计工程师，项目经理以及外部法规和咨询机构的专业知识来做出的。公众代表的道德理由不仅存在，而且他们对风险的感知可能会在决策模型中增加信息和本地知识。允许公众参与决策可确保他们做出正确的决策，并具有更大的可预测性，因为可以在设计过程中更早地评估他们的反应，避免在后期和成本更高的阶段产生反弹。人们更关注风险的可能性而不是概率，并且经常使用现有的认知启发式方法来处理风险。社会可归因于事件的风险程度可以通过可控性，社会公平性，熟悉度和问题显着性来增加。为了建立包括在设计决策中的指标，可以捕获可能增加风险感知的因素。几种理论试图解释对个人风险的反应，但是用社会术语来解释有时的极端和非理性反应则更为困难。因此，在任何大型可持续发展的设计阶段通知决策者都会遇到问题。在多属性决策（MADM）中，根据可行替代方案的属性对决策问题进行建模，并通过权衡过程获得最佳解决方案。将环境和社会问题与传统设计标准整合在一起的困难在于它们可能是复杂，主观和不确定的。模糊集方法允许这种不确定性，同时还可以评估选项。普通人经常面对与他们必须解释的科学措施有关的语言术语（例如“花粉计数很高”）。可以使用MADM，以便可以通过语言术语而不是数值来评估模糊集中的变量。使用自然语言可以在过于复杂或不确定的情况下（对于精确的定量术语）更直接地表示信息。语言术语的含义需要识别，并且，如果归因于一个以上的人，则应采用某种形式的加权，例如语言有序加权平均值（LOWA）。 LOWA的概念允许人们熟悉的短语等同于特定问题的预定级别，并使用成对凸组合的递归过程进行组合以形成“平均”。但是，如果设计人员要预见潜在问题，则必须同时考虑最佳和最坏情况。每个专家将拥有不同类型的专业知识，因此需要权重来体现这一点； MADM提出了一种解决方案，方法是根据专业知识合并进一步的权重，并将其用作与问题重要性相关的乘数。因此，使用专家定义的语言操作员提供了一种理解公众对与项目相关的风险的感知的真实可能性。

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