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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management(PSAM7-ESREL'04) v.6; 20040614-20040618; Berlin; DE >Deterministic and Probabilistic Analysis Supporting the Safety Case for a Proposed Deep Geological Repository in Opalinus Clay in Northern Switzerland
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Deterministic and Probabilistic Analysis Supporting the Safety Case for a Proposed Deep Geological Repository in Opalinus Clay in Northern Switzerland

机译：确定性和概率分析为瑞士北部Opalinus粘土中拟议的深层地质处置库的安全案例提供了支持

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摘要

This paper presented the use of deterministic and probabilistic analyses supporting the Safety Case for a proposed deep geological repository for SF, HLW and ILW in Opalinus Clay in northern Switzerland. While the main emphasis is on the derivation and analysis of a wide range of deterministic assessment cases (Fig. 1), probabilistic analyses are used in a complementary way in order to investigate the sensitivity of results to input parameters in a comprehensive manner (see Fig. 2 for an example). Thus, the probabilistic analyses serve to further enhance confidence that unlikely but critical parameter combinations do not result in unacceptable consequences. Finally, it is emphasised again that the quantitative analyses are complemented by a qualitative discussion of the performance of the system and the available independent evidence supporting the assumptions regarding the reliable functioning of key safety functions even in the distant future.
机译：本文介绍了确定性和概率分析的使用，为瑞士北部Opalinus Clay的SF，HLW和ILW拟议深层地质处置库的安全案例提供了支持。尽管主要重点是对各种确定性评估案例的推导和分析（图1），但概率分析也可以互补使用，以便以全面的方式研究结果对输入参数的敏感性（参见图1）。以2为例）因此，概率分析可进一步增强信心，即不太可能但关键的参数组合不会导致不可接受的后果。最后，再次强调，定量分析辅以对系统性能的定性讨论和可用的独立证据，这些证据支持关于关键安全功能可靠运行的假设，即使在遥远的将来也是如此。

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