Comparison of Modelling Methodologies for the Formal Safety Assessment in Shipping Transportation

机译：船舶运输形式安全评估建模方法的比较

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In the last decades, in maritime transportation, there have been a number of very serious accidents caused by different nature contributing factors. The consequences of these accidents were mass casualties in terms of human lives or human injuries, and in terms of environmental degradation, contributing to spoilage in local regional economies. A specific process known as Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) has been developed and applied to the International Marine Time Transportation (IMO) rule making process, in order to help the evaluation of new regulations or to compare proposed changes with existing standards. The Formal Safety Assessment consists of five steps: 1. Identification of hazards. 2. Assessment of risks. 3. Risk control option. 4. Cost benefit assessment. 5. Recommendations for decision-making. The application of the FSA facilitates a transparent decision making process and provides a proactive mean enabling to avoid serious accidents by highlighting potential hazards. In this paper, we propose to improve the modelling techniques used for the FSA by studying more elaborate ones, adapted for maritime safety, from statical models such as event trees to dynamic models such as the Markov models. Furthermore, Markov Reward Models can be used in order to evaluate different risk control options and the cost benefit assessment whereas Non-Homogeneous Markov Models can be utilized when the transition rates, based on the occurrence probability of determined events, are varying and depend on external environmental parameters such as weather.

机译：在过去的几十年中，在海上运输中，由于不同的自然因素引起了许多非常严重的事故。这些事故的后果是造成人员伤亡或环境恶化，造成大量人员伤亡，从而加剧了当地区域经济的腐败。已经开发出一种称为“正式安全评估”（FSA）的特定过程，并将其应用于国际海上时间运输（IMO）规则制定过程，以帮助评估新法规或将拟议的变更与现有标准进行比较。正式安全评估包括五个步骤：1.识别危害。 2.风险评估。 3.风险控制选项。 4.成本效益评估。 5.决策建议。 FSA的应用促进了透明的决策过程，并提供了一种积极主动的手段，能够通过突出潜在危害来避免发生严重事故。在本文中，我们建议通过研究适用于海上安全的更精细的模型，从事件树等静态模型到马尔可夫模型等动态模型，来改进FSA的建模技术。此外，可以使用马尔可夫奖励模型来评估不同的风险控制选项和成本效益评估，而当基于确定事件的发生概率而变化率变化且取决于外部因素时，可以使用非均质马尔可夫模型环境参数，例如天气。

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《International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management(PSAM7-ESREL'04) v.6; 20040614-20040618; Berlin; DE》|2004年|P.3263-3268|共6页
会议地点 Berlin(DE);Berlin(DE);Berlin(DE);Berlin(DE)
作者
Monica Konstantinidou; Evangelos Mennis; Nikitas Nikitakos; Agapios Platis;
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Department of Mathematics, University of the Aegean, Samos, GREECE;

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正文语种 eng
中图分类安全系统学;
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Comparison of Modelling Methodologies for the Formal Safety Assessment in Shipping Transportation

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