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首页> 外文会议>International conference on sustainable development of critical infrastructure 2014 >Quantification and Valuations of Resilience for Emergency Management
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Quantification and Valuations of Resilience for Emergency Management

机译：应急管理复原力的量化和评估

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The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70 percent of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the US amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this paper, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision-making tools for multi-hazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision-making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. Methods for valuation and benefit-cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management are introduced.
机译：联合国减少灾害风险办公室报告说，2011年的自然灾害，包括袭击日本的地震和海啸，在全球造成了3,660亿美元的直接损失和29,782人的死亡。在2011年全球302次自然灾害中，风暴和洪水占了70％，其中地震造成的死亡人数最多。美国的年平均损失约为550亿美元。增强社区和系统的弹性可以通过降低风险和迅速恢复而节省大量资金。适当地定义弹性和相关指标，有助于合理减少和恢复此类损失。在本文中，提供了一种弹性定义，该定义可以满足一组要求，并且与可靠性和风险的相关抽象概念的度量标准具有明确的关系。这些度量标准还符合从度量理论得出的逻辑上一致的要求，并为开发针对多灾种环境的有效决策工具提供了良好的基础。要提高系统的弹性以达到目标水平，就需要在决策框架内从经济角度研究系统增强方案。相关的决策分析方法通常需要基于整个社会对弹性的评估。介绍了基于风险分析和管理概念的估值和收益成本分析方法。

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