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首页> 外文会议>International meeting on severe accident assessment and management 2012: Lessons learned from fukushima dai-ichi >Markov Model of Accident Progression at Fukushima Daiichi
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Markov Model of Accident Progression at Fukushima Daiichi

机译：福岛第一核电站事故进展的马尔可夫模型

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摘要

On March 11, 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake followed by a tsunami caused loss of offsite power and disabled the emergency diesel generators, leading to a prolonged station blackout at the Fukushima Daiichi site. After successful reactor trip for all operating reactors, the inability to remove decay heat over an extended period led to boil-off of the water inventory and fuel uncovery in Units 1-3. A significant amount of metal-water reaction occurred, as evidenced by the quantities of hydrogen generated that led to hydrogen explosions in the reactor buildings of the Units 1 & 3, and in the de-fuelled Unit 4. Although it was assumed that extensive fuel damage, including fuel melting, slumping, and relocation was likely to have occurred in the core of the affected reactors, the status of the fuel, vessel, and drywell was uncertain. To understand the possible evolution of the accident conditions at Fukushima Daiichi, a Markov model (Ref. 1) of the likely state of one of the reactors was constructed and executed under different assumptions regarding system performance and reliability. The Markov approach was selected for several reasons: It is a probabilistic model that provides flexibility in scenario construction and incorporates time dependence of different model states. It also readily allows for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of different failure and repair rates of cooling systems. While the analysis was motivated by a need to gain insight on the course of events for the damaged units at Fukushima Daiichi, the work reported here provides a more general analytical basis for studying and evaluating severe accident evolution over extended periods of time. This work was performed at the request of the U.S. Department of Energy to explore "what-if" scenarios in the immediate aftermath of the accidents.
机译：2011年3月11日，发生9.0级地震并发生海啸，造成场外电力中断，并使紧急柴油发电机无法工作，导致福岛第一核电站的停电时间延长。在所有运行中的反应堆成功跳闸后，由于无法长时间消除衰变热，导致1-3号机组的水库存蒸发和燃料未发现。大量的金属-水反应发生，这是由氢的产生所证明的，该氢导致氢在1号和3号机组的反应堆建筑物中以及在无燃料的4号机组中爆炸。受影响的反应堆核心可能发生了包括燃料熔化，坍落和重新定位在内的损害，燃料，容器和干井的状态尚不确定。为了了解福岛第一核电站事故状况的可能演变，在关于系统性能和可靠性的不同假设下，构建并执行了一个反应堆可能状态的马尔可夫模型（参考文献1）。选择马尔可夫方法的原因有以下几个：它是一种概率模型，可在场景构建中提供灵活性，并结合了不同模型状态的时间依赖性。它还可以轻松地对冷却系统的不同故障和维修率进行敏感性和不确定性分析。尽管分析是出于对福岛第一核电站受损单元事件进程的了解的需要，但此处报告的工作为研究和评估长期严重事故演变提供了更一般的分析基础。这项工作是应美国能源部的要求进行的，目的是在事故发生后立即探索“假设”情况。

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