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首页> 外文会议>International symposium on emergency management 2011 >Discrete-Event Simulation in Evaluation of Medical Treatment Capability against Biochemical Terrorist Attacks
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Discrete-Event Simulation in Evaluation of Medical Treatment Capability against Biochemical Terrorist Attacks

机译：离散事件模拟在针对生化恐怖袭击的医疗能力评估中

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Large-scale victims would flock to the nearest hospital in a short period of time against biochemical terrorist attacks. It better treat these victims within the "Golden Hour" as more as possibly. In this paper, we proposed a new method to predict the medical treatment capability with two steps. First of all, we built a model to calculate the number of victims arriving in hospital with Monte Carlo method, and then simulated this model to generate the victims-flow arriving in hospital and made chi-square test to find out that these data distribution follow Poisson distribution approximately. Secondly, we built another model to calculate the medical treatment capability based on the generated data from the first simulation. As a result, we can get the capability and main factors influencing it The parameters in these models and procedures can be adjusted depending on specific scenarios, so that can be integrated in decision support systems of emergency management and play an auxiliary role for decision-makers.
机译：大规模受害者将在短时间内涌向最近的医院，以抵抗生化恐怖袭击。最好在“黄金时段”内尽可能多地对待这些受害者。在本文中，我们提出了一种分两步预测医疗能力的新方法。首先，我们建立了一个模型，用蒙特卡罗方法计算出到达医院的受害者人数，然后对该模型进行了仿真，以生成到达医院的受害者流量，并进行卡方检验，发现这些数据分布遵循泊松分布近似。其次，我们根据第一次模拟生成的数据建立了另一个模型来计算医疗能力。结果，我们可以获得影响它的能力和主要因素。这些模型和过程中的参数可以根据特定的场景进行调整，从而可以集成到应急管理的决策支持系统中，并为决策者发挥辅助作用。 。

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