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首页> 外文会议>International Symposium on Flood Defence vol.1; 20020910-13; Beijing(CN) >Flood simulation and risk analysis of the Yangtze basin from Yichang to Hankou river reach
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Flood simulation and risk analysis of the Yangtze basin from Yichang to Hankou river reach

机译：宜昌至汉口段长江流域洪水模拟与风险分析。

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摘要

Based on the characteristics of flood control system in the middle reach of the Yangtze River basin, a multiple-input single output linear system model is proposed by using the principle and method of modern system engineering. Four inter-basins, Shashi, Luoshan, Hankou and Dongting Lake, are selected for flood simulation case study. The model is applied to these inter-basins and the simulated flood hydrographs are compared with those depicted from observed data. The results are satisfactory with high model efficiencies and low relative errors. The model will provide technical support and service for flood forecasting and flood dispatch decision as well as risk analysis in this region. The 1954 and 1998 large floods are chosen for prototype of the Three Gorges reservoir's design flood. The risk of flood control system in the river reach of the Yangtze basin is analyzed based on the reservoir operation regulations and flood detention area management rules. It is shown that the construction of the Three Gorges Project will significantly reduce the flooding risk in the middle and lower river reach of the Yangtze basin.
机译：针对长江中游防洪系统的特点，运用现代系统工程原理和方法，提出了一种多输入单输出线性系统模型。沙石，洛山，汉口和洞庭湖四个流域被选为洪水模拟案例研究。该模型应用于这些流域之间，并将模拟洪水水文图与从观测数据中描绘的水文图进行了比较。具有较高的模型效率和较低的相对误差，结果令人满意。该模型将为该地区的洪水预报和洪水调度决策以及风险分析提供技术支持和服务。三峡水库设计洪水的原型选择了1954年和1998年的大洪水。根据水库调度规范和蓄滞洪区管理规则，分析了长江流域防洪系统的风险。结果表明，三峡工程的建设将大大降低长江流域中下游河段的洪灾风险。

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