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首页> 外文会议>International Symposium on Flood Defence vol.1; 20020910-13; Beijing(CN) >Integral flood risk evaluation methodology
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Integral flood risk evaluation methodology

机译：整体洪水风险评估方法

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摘要

Due to growth population and immigration of the people from the country to the cities, many places along the rivers have been occupied and urbanized. When a flood occurs life losses and extensive social and property damages may happen. To prevent or at least diminish this, it is necessary to have a flood risk evaluation that prevents the construction of dwellings in dangerous zones and that allows the implementation of policies and contingency plans. On the other hand, in the last decades new techniques have been developed, like: digital aerial photography, remote sensing based on satellite imagining, and better analytical and numerical models mat provide us with tools with great potential that allow to feed and to calibrate zoning models in a better and a more economical way. In this work, an integral methodology of risk evaluation and zoning that takes in consideration hydrological, geomorphologic, hydraulic and sociological data is proposed. As an application and validation of the method, a stretch of 22 km of the Nazas river in the vicinity of three cities: Torreon, Gomez Palacio and Lerdo (Mexico) is studied. The results are presented as danger, vulnerability and risk maps and, among other things, shown that for peaks greater than 350 m~3/s (5 years return period) there are urban, industrial and agricultural zones in danger of being inundated. Finally, several recommended urban growth policies and a contingency plan to reduce the flood damages is proposed. The method can be applied in other areas with similar flood problems and can be used in the elaboration of a national flood risks map.
机译：由于人口的增长和人们从该国到城市的移民，沿河的许多地方已被占领和城市化。发生洪水时，可能​​会造成生命损失，并可能造成广泛的社会和财产损失。为了防止或至少减少这种情况，有必要进行洪水风险评估，以防止在危险区域建造住房并允许执行政策和应急计划。另一方面，在过去的几十年中，已经开发出新技术，例如：数字航空摄影，基于卫星成像的遥感以及更好的分析和数值模型，这些为我们提供了具有巨大潜力的工具，可用于进行馈送和校准分区以更好，更经济的方式进行建模。在这项工作中，提出了一种综合考虑水文，地貌，水文和社会学数据的风险评估和分区方法。作为该方法的应用和验证，研究了三个城市附近的纳萨斯河的一段22公里，这三个城市是Torreon，Gomez Palacio和Lerdo（墨西哥）。结果显示为危险，脆弱性和风险图，此外，结果还表明，对于大于350 m〜3 / s（5年恢复期）的高峰，城市，工业和农业地区有被淹没的危险。最后，提出了一些建议的城市发展政策和减少洪水危害的应急计划。该方法可用于存在类似洪灾问题的其他地区，并可用于制定国家洪灾风险地图。

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