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首页> 外文会议>International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences(KSS2004); 20041110-12; Ishikawa(JP) >Homogenous Markov Analysis of the Proportion of Enterprise-Supplier Relationship Types under SCM Strategy
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Homogenous Markov Analysis of the Proportion of Enterprise-Supplier Relationship Types under SCM Strategy

机译：供应链管理策略下企业-供应商关系类型比重的齐次马尔可夫分析

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摘要

The paper classifies 5 independent types of relationship between supplier and -enterprise and points out that the coexistence of these types. Furthermore, the evolutionary process of relationship type transformation is regarded as Markov Process. On basis of this hypothesis, the homogenous Markov Model where one-step transformation probability matrix is normal probability matrix is build up and used to analyze and forecast the state probability of different relationship types in ideal status. Lastly, the paper provides with an empirical study on the feasibility of the developed model on the forecast of the proportion of enterprise-supplier relationship types by employing the data of supplier transformation of a world's top 500 company. The model is based on the hypothesis that the total number of suppliers is constant. In practice, the number of the suppliers of the enterprise varies under such circumstances as the administration activity of merge with other enterprise, the number of launched products higher than that of obsolete products and re-partition of supplier resources among the competitive counterparts. In addition, The SCM strategy of the dominant enterprise modifies as well with the change of competition environment; therefore, the state transformation probability is not always constant. In the application, the model is preferred to use for the analysis of ideal relationship type proportion for the traditional manufacturer as the dominant enterprise in the supply chain (such as international traditional chemical Pharmaceuticals) where the market share is stable, product development life cycle is long and the enterprise scale is large and the enterprise has a long-term SCM strategy. The result of analysis and forecast from the model plays a reference role in the assessment of the effectiveness of enterprise SCM strategy.
机译：本文将供应商和企业之间的关系分为5种独立类型，并指出这些类型并存。此外，关系类型转换的演化过程被称为马尔可夫过程。在此假设的基础上，建立了以一阶变换概率矩阵为正态概率矩阵的齐次马尔可夫模型，并用于分析和预测理想状态下不同关系类型的状态概率。最后，本文利用世界500强企业的供应商转型数据，对建立的企业-供应商关系类型比例预测模型的可行性进行了实证研究。该模型基于供应商总数不变的假设。实际上，在与其他企业合并的管理活动，推出产品的数量高于陈旧产品的数量以及竞争性对手之间重新分配供应商资源的情况下，企业的供应商数量会有所不同。另外，随着竞争环境的变化，优势企业的供应链管理战略也随之发生变化。因此，状态转换概率并不总是恒定的。在应用中，该模型更适合用于分析市场份额稳定，产品开发生命周期稳定的传统制造商作为供应链中的主导企业（如国际传统化学制药）的理想关系类型比例。时间长，企业规模大，企业具有长期的供应链管理策略。该模型的分析和预测结果在评估企业供应链管理策略的有效性方面具有参考作用。

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