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首页> 外文会议>IPMA(International Project Management Association) World Congress on Project Management; 20061015-17; Shanghai(CN) >A HEURISTIC APPROACH FOR MEASURING CRITICALITY IN ACTIVITY NETWORKS
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A HEURISTIC APPROACH FOR MEASURING CRITICALITY IN ACTIVITY NETWORKS

机译：一种衡量活动网络关键性的启发式方法

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摘要

Concepts of critical path and critical activities are very familiar with project managers and are widely recognized as fundamental in project planning and control. However, their use is reduced in practice. In case of activity duration stochastic variability each activity could be critical with a given probability, since the critical path is not univocally defined and each path has a non zero probability to be critical. In this case, the analysis is focused on the estimation of the mean project duration and on its variability; the importance of an activity is measured by its criticality index. Many indices are proposed in the scientific literature to cope with such a problem. However, a general approach to measure the influence of activity durations variability on the project duration is not yet available. In this paper the authors propose an approach to contribute to overcome the abovementioned limit. The approach is based on response surface methodology. A numerical example outlines the approach capability in identifying efficiently project activities most affecting project duration variability.
机译：关键路径和关键活动的概念对项目经理非常熟悉，并被广泛认为是项目计划和控制的基础。但是，实际上减少了它们的使用。在活动持续时间随机变异的情况下，由于没有明确定义关键路径并且每个路径具有非零概率，因此在给定的概率下每个活动可能都是关键的。在这种情况下，分析的重点是平均项目工期的估计及其可变性。活动的重要性由其关键性指标衡量。为了解决该问题，在科学文献中提出了许多指标。但是，尚没有一种通用的方法来衡量活动持续时间的可变性对项目持续时间的影响。在本文中，作者提出了一种有助于克服上述限制的方法。该方法基于响应面方法。一个数字示例概述了有效地识别对项目工期可变性影响最大的项目活动的方法能力。

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