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首页> 外文会议>Joint ESA-NASA space-flight safety conference >ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF ON-GROUND RISK DURING RE-ENTRIES
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ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF ON-GROUND RISK DURING RE-ENTRIES

机译：重入期间地面风险的评估和管理

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The present paper outlines methods which allow to quantify and monitor the on-ground population risk in the course of a hazardous re-entry event. Based on the concept of a spacecraft specific casualty cross-section of survivor fragments, the reentry risk potential will be derived for an endangered ground swath, and for an underlying population density distribution. The main steps will be outlined of modeling a spacecraft, and of subjecting it to aerodynamic, aerothermal, and structural loads during a 6 degrees-of-freedom propagation through changing atmospheric flight regimes. By monitoring structural and thermal failure conditions, the generation and dispersion of fragments along the orbit ground swath will be reproduced, and means will be described to perform long-term and short-term risk assessments as a function of the orbit inclination, node position, and entry location. In case of residual manoeuvering capabilities strategies will be explained to control and reduce the casualty risk potential by affecting the ascending node and final impact footprint on the re-entry orbit. The usefulness of these concepts will be demonstrated for the re-entries of Skylab and of Mir.
机译：本文概述了一些方法，这些方法可以量化和监视危险再入事件过程中的地面人口风险。基于幸存者碎片的特定于航天器的伤亡横截面的概念，将为濒临灭绝的地带和潜在的人口密度分布得出再入的潜在风险。将概述主要步骤，包括对航天器进行建模，以及在6自由度传播过程中，通过不断变化的大气飞行状况，使其经受气动，气动和结构载荷。通过监视结构和热失效条件，将再现碎片沿着轨道地带的产生和散布，并将描述根据轨道倾角，节点位置，和输入位置。在剩余机动能力的情况下，将说明通过影响上升节点和重返轨道的最终影响足迹来控制和减少潜在伤亡风险的策略。这些概念的有用性将在Skylab和Mir的重新进入中得到证明。

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