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Probabilistic Risk Assessment at NASA and Plans for the Future

机译：美国宇航局的概率风险评估和未来计划

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Many techniques used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) originated in the aerospace industry yet this industry currently lags behind others in the use of and contribution to the advance of PRA methods. Over the past decade, NASA has increased its appreciation and use of PRA but, not until recently, has NASA made PRA a programmatic priority. Currently, NASA is aggressively expanding the use of PRA in its programs and projects and is enhancing its in-house expertise in PRA to support engineering and management decisions. Important recent NASA accomplishments in this area include: (1) development of a policy implementation guideline for the use of PRA in programs and projects; (2) development of an integrated PRA software application (QRAS); (3) PRA awareness training for management and PRA methodology courses for practitioners; (4) training on state-of-the-art PRA software; (5) development of a PRA procedures guide for aerospace applications; (6) PRA workshops and conferences; (7) PRA cooperative efforts with US government agencies experienced in PRA (e.g., the NuclearrnRegulatory Commission); and (8) PRA cooperative efforts with the European and Japanese space agencies on risk assessment and management. NASA is determined to become a leader in PRA methodology and in its application as an engineering and management tool to improve safety and productivity and to ensure mission success.
机译：概率风险评估（PRA）中使用的许多技术起源于航空航天工业，但该行业目前在PRA方法的使用和发展方面落后于其他技术。在过去的十年中，NASA提高了对PRA的了解和使用，但是直到最近，NASA才将PRA列为计划的重点。目前，NASA正在计划和项目中积极扩展PRA的使用，并正在增强其PRA内部专业知识，以支持工程和管理决策。 NASA在这方面的最新重要成就包括：（1）制定政策实施指南，以在计划和项目中使用PRA； （2）开发集成的PRA软件应用程序（QRAS）； （3）针对管理人员的PRA意识培训和针对从业人员的PRA方法论课程； （4）有关最新PRA软件的培训； （5）制定航空航天应用的PRA程序指南； （6）PRA研讨会和会议； （7）PRA与具有PRA经验的美国政府机构（例如，美国核监管委员会）的合作； （八）PRA与欧洲和日本航天局在风险评估和管理方面的合作。 NASA决心成为PRA方法论及其在工程和管理工具中的应用的领导者，以提高安全性和生产率并确保任务成功。

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