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The Risks of LSCITS: The Odds Are Stacked against Us

机译：LSCITS的风险：赔率对我们不利

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Complex IT Systems are often used in applications which can pose a risk to their owners or to the public. Many of these are subject to extensive risk assessment before they are deployed and operated yet, despite this, undesired events do arise, leading to financial loss or loss of life. This paper investigates the role of existing risk assessment methods and draws the conclusion that they do not effectively predict the causes of actual loss events. The paper then suggests an alternative approach, which has the potential to offer a unified approach to risk assessment across a number of domains, and across different system properties, e.g. safety and financial risk. It concludes with observations on similar methods and research results, especially from accident analysis, and makes suggestions for future research directions.
机译：复杂的IT系统通常用于可能对其所有者或公众构成风险的应用程序中。其中许多在部署和操作之前都经过广泛的风险评估，尽管如此，确实会发生意外事件，从而导致财务损失或生命损失。本文研究了现有风险评估方法的作用，并得出结论，即它们不能有效地预测实际损失事件的原因。然后，本文提出了一种替代方法，该方法有可能提供跨多个域以及跨不同系统属性（例如安全和财务风险。最后对类似方法和研究结果进行了观察，特别是从事故分析中得出的结论，并对未来的研究方向提出了建议。

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