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Experience using probabilistic methods in problems of the Canadian frontier

机译：使用概率方法解决加拿大边境问题的经验

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The paper focusses on three projects in harsh environments in Canada in which probabilistic methods have been used. These are first, the design of production facilities for oil and gas development in the subarctic regions of the Grand Banks; second, the design of the Confederaiton Bridge joining New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island; and third, the development of new Canadian regulations for the design of vessels in arctic transportation. In all three projects, the estimation of design loads was the principal concren, and simulation models were developed in each case. The principal uncertainty is the question of ice loads, and these are given prominence in the paper. The simulation models are briefly outlined in the paper. The problems discussed contain many uncertainties with inadequate data, and the relative importance of these first needs investigation. The analyses of the exposure (number of events in a given duration) are outlined. These have a different effect on the result, as compared to those that enter directly, for example via the load calculation. One of the main uncertainties relates to ice failure processes, which contain many probabilistic features. These are briefly summarised. Experience has resulted in the conclusion that probabilistic anlayses are very useful and point the way to further improvement.
机译：本文重点介绍了在加拿大恶劣环境中使用概率方法的三个项目。首先是在大银行亚北极地区设计用于石油和天然气开发的生产设施;其次，连接新不伦瑞克省和爱德华王子岛的联邦大桥的设计;第三，制定新的加拿大北极运输船设计法规。在所有三个项目中，设计负荷的估计都是主要考虑因素，并且每种情况下都开发了仿真模型。主要的不确定性是冰负荷的问题，这些在本文中都得到了强调。本文简要概述了仿真模型。所讨论的问题由于数据不足而存在许多不确定性，并且这些首先需要进行调查的相对重要性。概述了暴露的分析（给定持续时间内的事件数）。与直接输入（例如通过载荷计算）的结果相比，它们对结果的影响不同。主要的不确定性之一涉及冰破坏过程，该过程包含许多概率特征。简要总结了这些内容。经验得出的结论是，概率分析非常有用，并指出了进一步改进的途径。

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