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A Bayesian framework for fragility assessment

机译:贝叶斯脆弱性评估框架

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摘要

A Bayesian framework for structural fragility assessment is described. The approach allows full use of information available from mathematical models, laboratory tests data, post-earthquake field observation, and engineering judgement. Consistent account is made of all uncertainties, includign those arising from inherent variabilities, model imperfection, measurement error, and statistical uncertainty. The distinct natures of inherent and epistemic uncertainties are discussed. Point estimates of fragility as well as confidence bounds that reflect the influence of epistemic uncertainties are formulated. Two example applications demonstrate the methodology.
机译:描述了结构脆弱性评估的贝叶斯框架。该方法可以充分利用数学模型,实验室测试数据,地震后现场观察和工程判断中可用的信息。一致考虑所有不确定性,包括由固有变异性,模型缺陷,测量误差和统计不确定性引起的不确定性。讨论了固有不确定性和认知不确定性的不同性质。制定了脆弱性的点估计以及反映认知不确定性影响的置信区间。两个示例应用程序演示了该方法。

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