This paper presents results from a simulation-based probabilistic analysis of long-term serviceability performance of R/C flexural members. Particular consideration is given to the effects of early-age (construction) loading on the long-term deflection performance. As such, included in the analysis are models for concrete maturation, nonlinear creep and shrinkage behavior, and load process models for both service and construction. A mechanics-based approach is used to evalaute curvatures, and a new approach based on superposition of curvatures is used to evaluate time-dependent deflections. Results from a parameter sensitivity study are also presented. While the focus of this paper is on development of the time-dependent analysis technique, an extension of an earlier approach developed for assumed time-invariant loads, some discussion of the implications for deflection serviceability design of R/C members is presented i nthe context of the simple members considered.
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