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Aircraft Valuation: A Network Approach to the Evaluation of Aircraft for Fleet Planning and Strategic Decision Making

机译：飞机评估：机队规划和战略决策飞机评估的网络方法

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Commercial aircraft and engine developments are major endeavours which strain considerably the resources of manufacturers. Beyond the financial strains, these research and development programs represent huge bets for the companies due to the fixed assumptions made when business plans are conceived and the abundance of uncertainties both at the technical and market levels. Standard methods used for capital budgeting are not well suited to account for uncertainty and tend to undervalue research and development projects. Similarly, traditional methods fail to capture the dynamic nature of the market and the erosion of leadership positions over time. The on-going research tries to fill some of these gaps by proposing a game-theoretic and real-option based method that will both help optimize research and development strategies as well as properly value large development projects. The analysis is applied to large commercial aircraft and engine developments and this paper presents the first step of the proposed methodology which is the valuation of aircraft and engines from a customer perspective. Assessing the value of an aircraft for an airline is both a complex and tedious task due to the uncertain environment and the long forecasting periods. Existing methods do not always capture the problem in its entirety and usually over-simplify it by using generic routes and surrogate models. In this paper, a method is proposed to carry out the valuation of an aircraft and its engines over an entire airline network. The aircraft valuation method developed will be used in later stages of the research to carry out the competitive analysis that is used for the aircraft development project valuation.
机译：商用飞机和发动机的开发是主要的努力，这极大地消耗了制造商的资源。除了财务压力之外，由于制定业务计划时做出的固定假设以及技术和市场层面的大量不确定性，这些研发计划对公司来说是巨大的赌注。用于资本预算的标准方法不太适合解决不确定性，并且往往低估研发项目的价值。同样，传统方法无法捕捉市场的动态性质以及随着时间的流逝领导地位的下降。正在进行的研究试图通过提出一种基于博弈论和实物期权的方法来填补其中的一些空白，这将有助于优化研究和开发策略，并适当地评估大型开发项目。该分析适用于大型商用飞机和发动机的开发，本文介绍了所提出方法的第一步，即从客户角度评估飞机和发动机。由于不确定的环境和漫长的预测周期，评估飞机对航空公司的价值既是一项繁琐又繁琐的任务。现有方法并不总是能完整地捕获问题，并且通常会通过使用通用路由和代理模型来简化它。在本文中，提出了一种在整个航空公司网络上对飞机及其引擎进行估价的方法。所开发的飞机评估方法将用于研究的后期阶段，以进行用于飞机开发项目评估的竞争性分析。

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