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The development of fuzzy linguistic risk levels for risk analysis of offshore engineering products using approximate reasoning approach

机译:使用近似推理方法开发海上工程产品风险分析的模糊语言风险等级

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The design process of an offshore engineering product may be divided into a sequence including, for instance, feasibility design stage, concept design stage, per-engineering stage, detail engineering stage, construction stage, commissioning and start up stage. Because the process of risk analysis in different design stages is very complex and data available at each stage may be incomplete for decision making in many circumstances, in particular, the feasibility and concept design stages, it may be extremely difficult to conduct probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to assess the occurrence likelihood of hazards and magnitudes of their possible consequences due to the great uncertainty involved. "The industry guidelines on a framework for risk related decision support" produced by the UK Offshore Operators Association (UKOOA) and UK Health & Safety Executive (HSE) in April 1999, provides a sound basis for evaluating the various design options in the initial design stages. Based on the guidelines, a framework based on safety-cost-reliability assessment using approximate reasoning has been developed to apply to the design process of offshore products. This paper presents a new safety model of this framework using approximate reasoning and the development of fuzzy linguistic risk levels in the initial design stages for risk analysis of offshore products.
机译:海上工程产品的设计过程可以分为一个序列,包括例如可行性设计阶段,概念设计阶段,每个工程阶段,详细工程阶段,施工阶段,调试和启动阶段。由于不同设计阶段的风险分析过程非常复杂,并且在许多情况下(尤其是在可行性和概念设计阶段)许多阶段的决策中每个阶段可用的数据可能都不完整,因此进行概率风险评估可能非常困难( PRA),以评估由于涉及的巨大不确定性而导致危害发生的可能性及其后果的严重性。由英国离岸运营商协会(UKOOA)和英国健康与安全执行官(HSE)于1999年4月制定的“有关风险相关决策支持框架的行业指南”为评估初始设计中的各种设计选项提供了坚实的基础。阶段。根据该指南,已开发出一种基于安全成本可靠性评估(使用近似推理)的框架,该框架可应用于海上产品的设计过程。本文针对海上产品的风险分析,在初始设计阶段使用近似推理和模糊语言风险水平的发展,提出了该框架的新安全模型。

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