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SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF TRAFFICSITUATION USING MLP-NEURAL NETWORKS

机译:基于MLP神经网络的交通流量短期预测

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The purpose of this research was to study the influence of various factors on the results of theshort-time prediction of the traffic situation on motorways. The models were made to predictthe speed and flow 15 minutes ahead of the observation period in five-minute periods. Multilayerperceptron networks were used as prediction models. According to this study, it wasbetter to increase the number of hidden neurons by reducing the input parameters bydecreasing the number of cross-sections rather than by shortening the time-series. The modelsthat were divided into two sub-models – one for the mean speed forecasts and the other for thetraffic flow forecasts – gave better results than one single model predicting both variablessimultaneously. For 90 percent of the predicted flows the relative error was 20 percent atmost, and for 90 percent of the predicted speeds it was four percent at most.
机译:这项研究的目的是研究各种因素对结果的影响。 高速公路交通状况的短期预测。模型是用来预测 在五分钟内比观察期提前15分钟的速度和流量。多层的 感知器网络被用作预测模型。根据这项研究, 最好通过减少输入参数来增加隐藏神经元的数量 减少横截面的数量,而不是缩短时间序列。型号 分为两个子模型-一个用于平均速度预测,另一个用于 交通流量预测–比预测两个变量的单一模型提供了更好的结果 同时。对于90%的预测流量,相对误差为20% 最多,对于90%的预测速度,最多为4%。

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