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Probabilistic prediction of landslides on natural slopes in Korea

机译:韩国自然斜坡滑坡的概率预测

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A landslide survey of more than 1,600 slides was performed at scales of 1:50,000 and 1:5,000 in Gyeonggi province, Korea. Although most of the landslides are classified as debris flows, the slides are translational at their triggering positions. On the basis of the field survey and laboratory tests, the 198 transla-tional slides selected for this study were analyzed for triggering factors, and quantitative weighting values for these factors were determined by means of geostatistics. The 198 landslides occurred under the same rainfall condition; as much as 250 to 300mm for two days in 1998. GIS techniques acquired data for topographical factors in the whole study area. Soil tests determined ten physical properties per sample. Then, seven landslide triggering factors were selected using geostatistical methods. With the selected influential factors, logistic regression analysis assigned weighting values to the factors and established a formula for predicting the probability of landslide.
机译:在韩国京畿道以1:50,000和1:5,000的比例对1,600多个滑坡进行了滑坡调查。尽管大多数滑坡被归类为泥石流,但滑坡在其触发位置是平移的。在现场调查和实验室测试的基础上,分析了用于本研究的198张平移幻灯片的触发因素,并通过地统计学确定了这些因素的定量权重值。在相同降雨条件下发生了198次滑坡。在1998年,为期两天的时间达到250至300mm。GIS技术获取了整个研究区域中地形因素的数据。土壤测试确定每个样品十个物理性质。然后,使用地统计方法选择了七个滑坡触发因素。利用选定的影响因素,逻辑回归分析为这些因素分配了权重值,并建立了一个预测滑坡可能性的公式。

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