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首页> 外文会议>ISES (International Solar Energy Society) Solar World Congress;ASES (American Solar Energy Society) Annual Conference;National Passive Solar Conference >THE PRODUCTION PEAKS IN PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS: INFORMATION, MISINFORMATION, AWARENESS, AND IMPLICATIONS
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THE PRODUCTION PEAKS IN PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS: INFORMATION, MISINFORMATION, AWARENESS, AND IMPLICATIONS

机译：石油和天然气的生产峰值：信息，错误信息，意识和含意

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Starting in 1948 Dr. Hubbert spoke out about oil depletion. In 1956 he estimated US peak oil production would happen around 1970 (13), and later he estimated world peak oil production would happen around 2000 (15). Dr. Farrington Daniels, who founded ISES, knew Hubbert and accepted his work. Many ISES members are however still oblivious to the oil peak and its implications for solar energy. There is a rich literature on oil and gas depletion, including websites (20). The world oil Hubbert Peak will probably be within 2 or 3 years. For solar energy to meet the oil shortfall would require a sustained annual growth rate of 50% or more for 20 years (51). There are still misinformation campaigns. The USGS has made optimistic projections on world oil using flawed statistics, and the former GRI has used imagined technological advances to predict an increase instead of a drop in natural gas production in North America.
机译：从1948年开始，哈伯特博士就谈到了石油的枯竭。 1956年，他估计美国的峰值石油产量将在1970年左右发生（13），后来他估计世界峰值的石油产量将在2000年左右发生（15）。创建了ISES的Farrington Daniels博士认识了Hubbert并接受了他的工作。但是，许多ISES成员仍然不了解石油高峰及其对太阳能的影响。关于石油和天然气消耗的文献很多，包括网站（20）。世界石油哈伯特峰可能在2到3年内。为了使太阳能满足石油短缺的需求，需要在20年内保持50％或更高的持续年增长率（51）。仍然有错误的信息运动。美国地质勘探局使用错误的统计数据对世界石油​​进行了乐观的预测，而前GRI则利用想象中的技术进步来预测北美天然气产量的增加而不是减少。

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