The feasibility of statistically forecasting Loop Current eddy separation is examined using a recently discovered relationship between Loop Current retreat after eddy separation and the subsequent eddy separation period [1]. The strawman hypothesis is that the timing of tLoop Current penetration and eddy separation is affected more by the initial condition of the Loop Current at the onset of intrusion rather than by the various dynamical mechanisms that interact during intrusion to cause eddy detachment. Thus, the latitude of Loop Current retreat after eddy separation can be used to forecast the period of the next Loop Current eddy separation cycle. This has been attempted for the three most recent eddy separation events. The strengths and weaknesses of the statistical forecasts are examined, as well as potential applications to operational planning and hurricane forecasting.
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