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COMMERCIAL PERSPECTIVES ON HEU BLENDDOWN

机译：HEU混搭的商业前景

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A lot has happened since HEU-derived supplies were introduced into the commercial nuclear fuel market. In the 1990s, the market was stagnant and already had considerable supplies from inventories and from the recently dissolved Soviet Union. HEU supplies further added to the supply overhang, further depressing prices (especially for uranium), and additional enrichment supplies contained in the HEU eventually led to a reduction in enrichment production capacity. Looking forward, the situation is far different. Most of the inventories have now been liquidated, and nuclear power is growing worldwide, and as a result a huge demand for new production has been created. Spot prices in uranium have increased from $10 to $136 this decade before falling back to below $100, as production growth has not met its targets. Enrichment prices have about doubled during this same timeframe as supplies in that market remain tight. Before the concern was that an influx of HEU-derived supplies would overwhelm the limited uncovered demand that was available and destroy the commercial market. Now market participants are concerned whether the pending loss of HEU supplies can be overcome, as there is considerable pressure on the nuclear fuel infrastructure to meet future demand even while HEU supplies are still available. Availability of uranium and enrichment is also an issue for countries embarking on nuclear power programs, and this makes the issue of supply assurance more crucial as the nuclear renaissance takes hold. This paper will examine the dramatic changes that have taken place in the nuclear fuel market and the role HEU supplies have played in the past and can be expected to play in the future, along with the evolution of industry views of HEU supplies. It will also examine policy implications with respect to continued blend down in light of the need to fuel new nuclear reactor builds as well as to offer fuel assurances to achieve nonproliferation goals.
机译：自从HEU衍生的供应引入商业核燃料市场以来，发生了很多事情。在1990年代，市场停滞不前，库存和最近解散的苏联已经有大量供应。高浓铀供应进一步增加了供应余量，进一步压低了价格（特别是铀），高浓铀中包含的额外浓缩物供应最终导致浓缩物生产能力下降。 展望未来，情况截然不同。现在，大多数库存已经清算，核电在全球范围内不断增长，因此，对新产品的需求量很大。铀的现货价格从十年前的10美元增加到136美元，然后由于产量增长未能达到目标而回落至100美元以下。在同一时间段内，由于该市场的供应保持紧张，浓缩价格上涨了约一倍。 之前担心的是，大量使用高浓铀产生的供应将淹没有限的，尚未发现的可用需求，并破坏商业市场。现在，市场参与者担心高浓铀供应的悬而未决的损失是否可以克服，因为即使高浓铀供应仍然可用，核燃料基础设施仍面临着满足未来需求的巨大压力。铀的供应和浓缩对那些开始实施核电计划的国家来说也是一个问题，随着核复兴的到来，这使得供应保证问题变得更加重要。 本文将研究核燃料市场上发生的巨大变化，以及高浓铀供应在过去以及将来有望发挥的作用，以及高浓铀供应的行业观点的演变。它还将根据需要为新的核反应堆建造提供燃料以及为实现防扩散目标提供燃料保证，审查有关继续混合的政策影响。

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