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Transitioning to a low carbon transport system in developing nations: Future Scenarios for India

机译：向发展中国家过渡到低碳交通系统：印度的未来方案

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Economic development and the rapidly increasing demand for mobility in developing countries are leading to increased demand for transport services. The sector is an important driver for determining future energy needs and emissions, being responsible for about 10% of total final energy demand and 8 % of CO2 emissions in India currently (IEA, 2007). However, the current trends seek caution with regard to environmental implications, so as to avoid locking into a carbon intensive future transport system. This paper assesses two paradigms for transiting to a low carbon transport system in India, using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model Energy Snapshot tool (ESS) to model energy demand for India between 2000 and 2050. Future energy demand and GHG emissions are estimated under the two scenarios, and the total reduction potential from the transport sector as compared to the 'Business as usual' case has been presented. The model output presents the energy and environment benefits that can occur from such initiatives, under the Kaya Identity framework, for a detailed policy analysis. Also, to demonstrate the long term emission benefits of such low carbon initiatives, a project level case study of the Dedicated Freight Corridor between Delhi and Mumbai has been taken.
机译：经济发展和发展中国家对出行需求的迅速增长导致对运输服务的需求增加。该行业是确定未来能源需求和排放的重要驱动力，目前占印度最终能源需求总量的10％和CO2排放的8％（IEA，2007）。但是，当前的趋势在环境影响方面寻求谨慎，以避免陷入碳密集型的未来交通运输系统。本文使用亚太综合模型能源快照工具（ESS）对印度在2000年至2050年之间的能源需求进行建模，评估了向印度低碳交通系统过渡的两种范式。在这两种情况下，估计了未来的能源需求和温室气体排放量情景，以及与“照常营业”案例相比，运输部门减少的总潜力。模型输出显示了在Kaya Identity框架下，此类举措可能产生的能源和环境效益，以进行详细的政策分析。另外，为了证明这种低碳举措的长期排放效益，我们对德里和孟买之间的专用货运走廊进行了项目级案例研究。

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