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首页> 外文会议>International conference on transportation engineering;ICTE 2009 >TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECASTING FOR KUNMING-HAIPHONG TRANSPORT CORRIDOR (HANOI - LAOCAI EXPRESSWAY)
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TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECASTING FOR KUNMING-HAIPHONG TRANSPORT CORRIDOR (HANOI - LAOCAI EXPRESSWAY)

机译：昆明-海防运输走廊（河内-老蔡高速公路）的交通需求预测

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摘要

With the social-economic development occurring in China's southwest Sichuan province and Yunnan Province, the above-mentioned region's external passenger and freight transport demand flow has grown rapidly which urges the need of building the main passage as gateway to the ocean for southwest China Because the total distance from Kunming through Vietnam's capital Hanoi to Haiphong port to ocean is significantly shorter than that from Kunming to Guangzhou, Shenzhen. In the joint efforts of China and Vietnam, the expressway construction from Kunming to Haiphong has started. The accurate prediction of expressway traffic is the basis for expressway planning and design and thus this article mostly evolves the traffic forecasting study on expressway from Kunming to Haiphong. Based on the actual situation, we combined advantages with the existing freeway traffic forecasting, respectively according to the original channel within the traffic demand of natural growth, induced by the new high-speed traffic and other traffic in the path of the transfer of these 3 aspects of forecasting, and made different sensitivity analysis on current toll level on expressway which, further improves the forecast accuracy.
机译：随着中国西南部四川省和云南省的社会经济发展，上述地区的外部客运和货运需求流量迅速增长，因此迫切需要建设主要通道作为西南地区通往海洋的门户。昆明经越南首都河内至海防港至海洋的总距离明显短于昆明至广州，深圳的总距离。在中国和越南的共同努力下，昆明至海防的高速公路建设已经开始。高速公路交通流量的准确预测是高速公路规划和设计的基础，因此本文主要对昆明至海防高速公路的交通流量预测进行了研究。根据实际情况，我们将优势与现有的高速公路交通预测相结合，分别根据原始通道内自然增长的交通需求，由新的高速交通和其他交通在这三个路径的转移中诱发预测方面，对高速公路当前通行费水平进行了不同的敏感性分析，进一步提高了预测的准确性。

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