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Convective weather forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels

机译：中心和部门级别的对流天气预报准确性分析

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This paper presents a detailed convective forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels. The study is aimed to provide more meaningful forecast verification measures to aviation community, as well as to obtain useful information leading to the improvements in the weather translation capacity models. In general, the vast majority of forecast verification efforts over past decades have been on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observation data analyses onto grids. These verification measures based on the binary classification have been applied in quality assurance of weather forecast products at the national level for many years. Our research focuses on the forecast at the center and sector levels. We calculate the standard forecast verification measure scores for en-route air traffic centers and sectors first, followed by conducting the forecast validation analysis and related verification measures for weather intensities and locations at centers and sectors levels. An approach to improve the prediction of sector weather coverage by multiple sector forecasts is then developed. The weather severe intensity assessment was carried out by using the correlations between forecast and actual weather observation airspace coverage. The weather forecast accuracy on horizontal location was assessed by examining the forecast errors. The improvement in prediction of weather coverage was determined by the correlation between actual sector weather coverage and prediction. The analysis was accomplished by using observed and forecasted Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) data collected from June to September in 2007. CWAM zero-minute forecast data with aircraft avoidance probability of 60% and 80% are used as the actual weather observation. All forecast measurements are based on 30-minute, 60-minute, 90-minute, and 120-minute forecasts with the same avoidance probabilities. The forecast accuracy analysis for times und--er one-hour showed that the errors in intensity and location for center forecast are relatively low. For example, 1-hour forecast intensity and horizontal location errors for ZDC center were about 0.12 and 0.13. However, the correlation between sector 1-hour forecast and actual weather coverage was weak, for sector ZDC32, about 32% of the total variation of observation weather intensity was unexplained by forecast; the sector horizontal location error was about 0.10. The paper also introduces an approach to estimate the sector three-dimensional actual weather coverage by using multiple sector forecasts, which turned out to produce better predictions. Using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model for this approach, the correlations between actual observation and the multiple sector forecast model prediction improved by several percents at 95% confidence level in comparison with single sector forecast.
机译：本文介绍了中心和部门水平上详细的对流预报准确性分析。该研究旨在为航空界提供更有意义的预报验证措施，并获得有用的信息，从而改善天气翻译能力模型。通常，在过去的几十年中，绝大多数的预测验证工作都是基于对网格上的预测和观测数据分析的传统标准验证度量分数的计算。这些基于二进制分类的验证措施已经在国家一级的天气预报产品质量保证中应用了很多年。我们的研究侧重于中心和部门层面的预测。我们首先计算航路中转航空中心和部门的标准预测验证措施分数，然后针对中心和部门级别的天气强度和位置进行预测验证分析和相关的验证措施。然后，开发了一种通过多个部门预报来改进部门天气覆盖率预测的方法。通过利用预报和实际天气观测空域覆盖率之间的相关性，进行了恶劣天气强度评估。通过检查预报误差来评估水平位置的天气预报准确性。天气覆盖面预测的改进取决于实际部门的天气覆盖面与预测之间的相关性。该分析是通过使用2007年6月至9月收集的观测和预测对流天气避免模型（CWAM）数据完成的。CWAM零分钟预报数据中飞机回避概率分别为60％和80％作为实际天气观测。所有预测度量均基于具有相同回避概率的30分钟，60分钟，90分钟和120分钟的预测。时间和时间的预测准确性分析 -- 一小时的时间表明，中心预报的强度和位置的误差相对较低。例如，ZDC中心的1小时预报强度和水平位置误差约为0.12和0.13。然而，部门1小时预报与实际天气覆盖率之间的相关性较弱，对于部门ZDC32，约32％的观测天气强度总变化尚无法通过预报解释。扇区水平位置误差约为0.10。本文还介绍了一种通过使用多个部门预测来估计部门三维实际天气覆盖率的方法，结果证明可以产生更好的预测。使用这种方法的多元线性回归（MLR）模型，与单部门预测相比，在95％置信水平下，实际观测值与多部门预测模型预测之间的相关性提高了几个百分点。

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