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首页> 外文会议>IAEE international conference >The Current Plateau In Personal Travel, Fuel Use And CO_2 Emissions from Travel In IEA Countries: Implications For The Future
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The Current Plateau In Personal Travel, Fuel Use And CO_2 Emissions from Travel In IEA Countries: Implications For The Future

机译：IEA国家个人旅行，燃料使用和旅行产生的CO_2排放的当前高原期：对未来的影响

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Projections of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions for industrialized countries typicallyshow continued growth in vehicle ownership, vehicle use and overall travel demand. Thisrepresents a continuation of trends from the 1970s through the early 2000s. This paper presents adescriptive analysis of cross-national passenger transport trends in six industrialized countries,providing evidence to suggest that these trends may have halted. Through decomposingpassenger transport energy use into activity, mode structure and energy intensity, we show thatincreases in total activity (passenger travel) have been the driving force behind increased energyuse, offset somewhat by declining energy intensity. We show that total activity growth has haltedrelative to GDP in recent years in the six countries examined. If these trends continue, it ispossible that accelerated decline in the energy intensity of car travel; stagnation in total travel percapita; some shifts back to rail and bus modes; and at least somewhat less carbon per unit ofenergy could leave the absolute levels of emissions in 2020 or 2030 lower than today.
机译：通常对工业化国家的能源使用和温室气体排放的预测 显示出车辆拥有量，车辆使用和整体出行需求的持续增长。这 代表了从1970年代到2000年代初趋势的延续。本文提出了一个 对六个工业化国家的跨国客运趋势进行描述性分析， 提供证据表明这些趋势可能已经停止。通过分解 客运能源的使用分为活动，模式结构和能源强度，我们证明 总体活动（乘客出行）的增加一直是增加能量的动力 使用，但由于能量强度的下降而有所抵消。我们表明，总活动增长已停止 六个国家中近年来相对于国内生产总值的比率。如果这些趋势继续下去，那就是 汽车行驶的能量强度加速下降的可能性;人均总旅行停滞 人均一些转变回到铁路和公交模式;并且每单位碳排放量至少少一点碳 能源可能会使2020年或2030年的绝对排放水平低于今天。

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