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Valuation of Investment Projects in Renewables using Real Options: a Case Study in Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy Plants

机译:使用实物期权的可再生能源投资项目评估:以糖,乙醇和能源工厂为例

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Energy generation from biomass has become a source of increasing interest due togrowing environmental concerns and the depletion of the world’s fossil fuel reserves. In thispaper we analyze a sugar and ethanol producing sugar cane mill in Brazil that has both the optionexpand and to add a cogeneration unit to allow the generation and sale of surplusbioelectricity. We model sugar, ethanol and electricity prices as geometric mean revertingprocesses, and apply the real options approach to determine the value of this managerialflexibility, considering that these options have three distinct underlying assets. The model is thensolved using the non censored binomial mean reverting lattice proposed by Bastian-Pinto,Brand?o and Hahn (2010) using the DPLTM software. The results indicate that significant valuebe derived from the flexibility to choose the optimal timing of investment in expansion ia abioelectricity producing cogeneration unit.
机译:由于生物质能的产生,人们对生物质的兴趣日益增加。 对环境的关注日益加剧,世界化石燃料储量枯竭。在这个 论文我们分析了巴西的一家制糖和制乙醇的甘蔗糖厂, 扩大并增加一个热电联产单元,以允许产生和出售剩余 生物电。我们将糖,乙醇和电价建模为几何均值回复 流程,并应用实物期权方法来确定该管理人员的价值 灵活性,考虑到这些选择具有三个不同的基础资产。然后是模型 使用Bastian-Pinto提出的非删减二项式均值回复格来求解, Brand?o和Hahn(2010)使用DPLTM软件。结果表明,显着价值 源于选择扩张的最佳投资时机的灵活性 生物发电联产机组。

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