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An Analysis on the Trend of China’s Housing Price and the Effect of the Regulations and Control Measures of Chinese Government in Recent Years

机译：近年来中国房价走势及中国政府调控措施的影响分析

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In recent decade, the real estate industry of China develops very fast. The completed and sold floor space of commercial residential building has grown quickly. At the same time, the prices in many cities have gone up drastically and constantly. And the increase of housing price has been exceeded that of rent constantly. The housing price and its increase in different cities have significant differences. The housing market in China has significant discrepancy from that in developed countries. On one hand, the urban land system in China is state-ownership. And the use rights and ownership of land are separated. The government (especially for local government) is the monopolistic supplier for the transfer of land use rights. On the other hand, most commercial residential building markets in China are the transaction for new houses. And most new houses are for residence not for investment. There are four parts in this paper. In the first part, we review the change trend of housing price in China in recent 10 years, and we get several changing characteristics. In the second part, we analyze the major factors influencing the change of the housing prices, such as the land price, residents' income and the credit amounts of financial institution. In order to comparison, we use the housing price data of 70 large- and medium-sized cities in China which from National Bureau of Statistics of China and clustering analysis method to classify these cities to 3 groups on the basis of change of housing price. Based on these data, we make a regression analysis and get the conclusions that the investment of public service such as urban infrastructure, education and medical care would influence the change of housing price to some extent. But the influence of demographic factor would not be proved because the representative of data is not enough. In the third part, we analyze the regulations and control measures of central government of China for the real estate market since 2009 and make a simple evaluation for their effects. In the last part, we give four suggestions for restraining the rapid growth of housing price.
机译：近十年来，中国的房地产业发展很快。商业住宅建筑的竣工和出售建筑面积迅速增长。同时，许多城市的价格都在不断大幅度上涨。而且住房价格的涨幅一直超过租金的涨幅。不同城市的住房价格及其上涨存在显着差异。中国的房地产市场与发达国家的房地产市场有很大的差异。一方面，中国的城市土地制度是国家所有。土地的使用权和所有权是分开的。政府（特别是地方政府）是土地使用权转让的垄断供应商。另一方面，中国大多数商品住宅市场都是新房交易。而且大多数新房子是供居住而不是用于投资。本文分为四个部分。在第一部分中，我们回顾了近十年来中国房价的变化趋势，并得出了几个变化特征。在第二部分中，我们分析了影响房价变化的主要因素，例如土地价格，居民收入和金融机构的信贷额度。为了进行比较，我们使用了来自中国国家统计局的中国70个大中城市的房价数据，并采用聚类分析方法根据房价变化将这些城市分为3类。基于这些数据，我们进行了回归分析，并得出结论，如城市基础设施，教育和医疗等公共服务投资将在一定程度上影响房价的变化。但是，由于数据的代表性不够，因此无法证明人口统计学因素的影响。第三部分，分析了2009年以来中央政府对房地产市场的调控措施，并对其效果进行了简单的评价。在最后一部分中，我们提出了四个抑制住房价格快速上涨的建议。

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