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The Effect of China's Demographic Transition and Economic Growth on Saving: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

机译:中国人口转变和经济增长对储蓄的影响:理论和实证分析

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In this paper, we study the effect of China's demographic transition and economic growth on saving by theoretical and empirical analysis. The permanent-income hypothesis is extended by taking demographic transition into consideration and using particular permanent income anticipation pattern to reflect Chinese saving behavior. The empirical analysis implies that saving rate is affected by length of the remaining earning years negatively, income growth rate positively and length of the remaining lifetime positively. The empirical result is consistent with the theoretical implications. And it also shows that net export and the saving rate are positively related and demonstrates that the influence of the total dependency on the saving rate is dependent on the value of the total dependency, that is, an increase in the total dependency results in a rise in the saving rate when the total dependency is larger than 63.8%, while the total dependency and the saving rate is related negatively when the total dependency is less than that. Eventually, we conclude that demographic transition affects the saving rate by changing the remaining earning years.
机译:本文通过理论和实证分析研究了中国人口转变和经济增长对储蓄的影响。通过考虑人口转变并使用特定的永久收入预期模式来反映中国的储蓄行为,扩展了永久收入假说。实证分析表明,储蓄率受到剩余收入年限的负面影响,收入增长率正相关,剩余生命周期的长度正面影响。实证结果与理论意义相吻合。并且还表明净出口与储蓄率呈正相关,并表明总依赖对储蓄率的影响取决于总依赖的值,即总依赖的增加导致储蓄的增加。当总依赖大于63.8%时,储蓄率与储蓄率呈负相关;当总依赖小于63.8%时,储蓄率与储蓄率呈负相关。最终,我们得出结论,人口转变会通过更改剩余的收入年限来影响储蓄率。

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