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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Hydroinformatics >SIMULATION OF THE IMPACTS OF URBANIZATION ON RUNOFF IN A SMALL AND MEDIDUM BASIN IN THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA REGION: A CASE STUDY OF XITOAOXI BASIN
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SIMULATION OF THE IMPACTS OF URBANIZATION ON RUNOFF IN A SMALL AND MEDIDUM BASIN IN THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA REGION: A CASE STUDY OF XITOAOXI BASIN

机译：长江三角洲地区中小流域城市化对径流的影响模拟-以小溪流域为例

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Urban expansion has significant impacts on hydrological processes at the watershed level. The information related to future urbanization and its impacts on watershed is a continuing challenge in watershed management. This paper combines an empirical land use change model and a physically based distributed hydrological model to evaluate potential impacts of future urbanization in the Xitiaoxi basin which locates at the upstream of Taihu Lake in the Yangtze River delta (YRD) region. First, SWAT model has been successfully calibrated and validated at monthly scale. Further, 4 future urbanization scenarios for the year 2020, differentiated by different urban area, are forecasted using the CLUE-s model based on the land use of 2002. Finally, the future land use scenarios were served as inputs to the calibrated SWAT model to investigate the potential impacts of urbanization on hydrology. The results indicate that future urbanization scenarios are projected to increase the total runoff and decrease the evapotranspiration at annual scale. And the magnitude of their impacts is more significant with higher percentage of urban area. Moreover, the change of runoff depth response is sensitive to that of built up area. At monthly scale, average runoff depth will increase in all months except for December, January, February, April and September, and the increment especially significant during May to August. As for the average monthly evapotranspiration, the magnitude of the decrement is the greatest during late summer and autumn months. Moreover, the rainfall characteristics influence the hydrological response to urbanization. The strongest hydrological response to land use change happens in dry years, the next in normal years, and the weakest in flood years. The results of this paper can provide useful support for land use planning and watershed management, and the methods applied here have proved a useful tool for land use impact studies.
机译：城市扩张对流域一级的水文过程有重大影响。与未来城市化及其对流域的影响有关的信息是流域管理中的持续挑战。本文结合经验土地利用变化模型和基于物理的分布式水文模型，以评估位于长江三角洲（太湖三角洲）太湖上游的西条溪流域未来城市化的潜在影响。首先，SWAT模型已经成功按月进行了校准和验证。此外，使用CLUE-s模型基于2002年的土地利用，预测了2020年的4种不同城市地区的未来城市化情景。最后，将未来的土地利用情景作为标准SWAT模型的输入，调查城市化对水文学的潜在影响。结果表明，预计未来的城市化情景将在年尺度上增加总径流量并减少蒸散量。随着城市面积的增加，其影响的程度也更加显着。此外，径流深度响应的变化对建成区的变化敏感。在月度范围内，除12月，1月，2月，4月和9月外，所有月份的平均径流深度都会增加，而5月至8月的增加尤为明显。至于平均每月的蒸散量，在夏末和秋季月份减少量最大。此外，降雨特征影响对城市化的水文响应。对土地利用变化的最强烈的水文响应发生在干旱年份，其次是正常年份，而在洪水年份则最弱。本文的研究结果可为土地利用规划和流域管理提供有益的支持，并且本文所采用的方法已被证明是进行土地利用影响研究的有用工具。

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