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首页> 外文会议>International conference of the System Dynamics Society >Might Continued Emphasis on Maize at the Expense of More Drought Tolerant Crops Endanger Food Security in the Horn of Africa?
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Might Continued Emphasis on Maize at the Expense of More Drought Tolerant Crops Endanger Food Security in the Horn of Africa?

机译：可能会继续以更多的耐旱作物为代价来强调玉米危害非洲之角的粮食安全吗？

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Maize is widely grown in Africa including in drier areas where alternate crops will often perform better. Although maize will fail in drought years, it produces substantially higher yields than alternates, such as sorghum and millet, in wet years. Although people tend to select which crops to grow based on recent experience with crop harvests and prices, there is a widespread preference for maize even in areas where planting it is risky. This can lead to crop failures when rainfall varies from year to year. Introduction of higher yielding maize varieties might, under some conditions, cause increases in food shortages by further incentivizing the planting of maize in inappropriate situations. A preliminary model helps to investigate this and related issues.
机译：玉米在非洲广泛种植，包括较干旱的地区，在这些地区替代作物通常表现更好。尽管玉米在干旱年份会歉收，但与潮湿年份的高粱和小米等替代品相比，它的单产要高得多。尽管人们倾向于根据作物收成和价格的最新经验来选择要种植的农作物，但即使在种植风险较高的地区，人们也普遍偏爱玉米。当降雨每年变化时，这可能导致农作物歉收。在某些情况下，引入高产玉米品种可能会通过在不适当的情况下进一步鼓励玉米种植，从而导致粮食短缺加剧。初步模型有助于调查此问题和相关问题。

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