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首页> 外文会议>International conference of the System Dynamics Society >Heart Meets Mind: Smart Transition Management to Smarten Energy Systems in a Deeply Uncertain World
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Heart Meets Mind: Smart Transition Management to Smarten Energy Systems in a Deeply Uncertain World

机译：心灵满足：智能过渡管理在不确定的世界中智能化能源系统

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Enormous future investments are needed to replace old energy systems/technologies, and prepare them for future needs. Moreover, smarter technologies/systems are needed. And in this ever more complex, interconnected, and uncertain world, smarter policymaking in the energy field is certainly needed too. After all, current energy policymaking still mainly ignores dynamic complexity under deep uncertainty. This paper illustrates two model-based approaches for supporting policymaking for complex and uncertain issues as well as their combination. First, Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis allows exploring and analyzing millions of plausible uncertain dynamic system behaviors and testing the robustness of policies. This approach is illustrated by means of a System Dynamics simulation model related to energy grid investments. Second, Experiential Model-Based Gaming allows policymakers to experience dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty, and helps them feel the need to embrace both in policymaking. Before having experienced different plausible futures, almost all high-level managers and highly-educated students that played such experiential games applied inappropriate strategies in most plausible futures played, and hence failed in the face of uncertainty. Failing repeatedly actually prepared them for thinking outside their old/reactive/predictive modes in subsequent bounce-casting sessions. Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis and Experiential Model-Based Gaming may also be mutually beneficial: most subjects only acknowledge the need to take uncertainty and dynamic complexity seriously into account after having participated in experience-oriented gaming sessions.
机译：需要大量的未来投资来替换旧的能源系统/技术，并为将来的需求做好准备。而且，需要更智能的技术/系统。在这个更加复杂，相互联系和不确定的世界中，当然也需要在能源领域做出更明智的决策。毕竟，当前的能源政策制定仍然主要忽略了在高度不确定性下的动态复杂性。本文阐述了两种基于模型的方法来支持针对复杂和不确定性问题的决策，以及它们的组合。首先，探索性系统动力学建模和分析功能可以探索和分析数百万个可能的不确定动态系统行为，并测试策略的鲁棒性。通过与能源网格投资有关的系统动力学仿真模型来说明此方法。其次，基于经验的基于模型的游戏使决策者能够体验动态的复杂性和深层的不确定性，并帮助他们感到有必要在决策过程中同时兼顾这两个方面。在经历了不同的未来期货之前，几乎所有玩过这种体验游戏的高级管理人员和受过良好教育的学生在大多数可能的未来期货中都采用了不合适的策略，因此在不确定的情况下失败了。反复失败实际上使他们准备好在随后的弹跳练习中跳出旧的/反应式/预测模式的思考。探索性系统动力学建模和分析以及基于体验模型的游戏也可能是互惠互利的：大多数受试者仅在参加了面向体验的游戏课程后才意识到需要认真考虑不确定性和动态复杂性。

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