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首页> 外文会议>2011 6th IEEE Conference on Industrial Electronics and Applications >Occurrence pattern of Spodoptera litura in Hunan and its prediction methods
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Occurrence pattern of Spodoptera litura in Hunan and its prediction methods

机译：湖南斜纹夜蛾的发生规律及预测方法

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The occurrence regulation of Spodoptera litura was studied according to the continiuous years''s data investigated in tobacco fields and weather data of Chenzhou and Ningyuan in Hunan. Results showed that generations of Spodoptera litura are 4–4.5 with the effective accumulated temperture per year and the actual generations of Spodoptera. litura is in accordance with the predicted generations in Hunan Province. The sources of Spodoptera litura in early stage of the year were migration pest, there were four occurrence stages in a year according the properties of pests sources, the number of trapped moths from April to June is significantly correlated with the number in March, the forecasting model is ŷ = 233.54 + 112.44x4 (r = 0.815∗, n = 8). The number of trapped moths from April to June is significantly correlated with the daily average temperture of January (reliability degree was 90%), the forecasting model is ŷ = −1410 + 350x(r = 0.595, n = 9). The number of trapped moths of Agrotis ypsilon at its major migration stage (February-April), which synchronously migrated with Spodoptera litura, is significantly correlated with the number of Spodoptera litura in its major migration stage (April-June), and it provide data for the prediction of occurrence trend of Spodoptera. litura. The damage percent is significantly correlated with the number of Spodoptera litura per 100 plants, and the number of Spodoptera. litura per 100 plants at normal control plots as x1, the damage percent as y, r = 0.977∗∗ (n=10); the number of Spodoptera litura per 100 plants at observed plots as x2, the damage percent as y, r = 0.974∗∗ (n=10).
机译：根据连续多年在烟田调查的数据以及湖南zhou州和宁远的气象数据，研究了斜纹夜蛾的发生规律。结果表明，斜纹夜蛾的世代为4–4.5，每年的有效积温和实际的斜纹夜蛾的世代。荔枝与湖南省的预测世代相符。早年斜纹夜蛾的来源为迁移害虫，根据害虫来源的特性，一年中有四个发生阶段，4〜6月被捕食的飞蛾数量与3月份的数量显着相关，预报模型为ŷ= 233.54 + 112.44x 4 （r = 0.815 ∗ ，n = 8）。 4月至6月捕获的飞蛾数量与1月的日平均温度显着相关（可靠度为90％），预测模型为ŷ= -1410 + 350x（r = 0.595，n = 9）。与斜纹夜蛾同步迁移的，主要迁移阶段（2月至4月）的Agrotis ypsilon蛾的数量与主要迁移阶段（4月至6月）的斜纹夜蛾数量显着相关，并提供数据用于预测斜纹夜蛾的发生趋势。利图拉。损害百分率与每100株斜纹夜蛾的数量和斜纹夜蛾的数量显着相关。正常对照样地每100株植物的荔枝为x 1 ，伤害百分数为y，r = 0.977 ∗∗ （n = 10）;观察到的地块上每百株斜纹夜蛾的数量为x 2 ，伤害百分数为y，r = 0.974 ∗∗ （n = 10）。

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