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A Study of Risk Analysis Methods Based on Uncertain Event Analysis in Strategy Decision-Making

机译:基于不确定事件分析的战略决策风险分析方法研究

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摘要

A kind of strategy decision-making risk analysis method is put forward based on uncertain event analysis, on the basis of potential uncertain events confronted in decision-makings. In this method, a model is constructed to generate the decision-making option space, with detailed generation ways based on the risks of uncertain events. By comparing the potential capacities of the enemy, self-army and the third party, the occurrence probabilities and consequent losses of uncertain events are quantified. Extreme event samples were selected by means of conditional expectation to obtain the quantified description of each risk. Three ways of analyzing the quantified results are proposed.
机译:提出了一种基于不确定事件分析的策略决策风险分析方法,以决策中可能遇到的不确定事件为基础。在这种方法中,构建模型以生成决策选项空间,并基于不确定事件的风险使用详细的生成方式。通过比较敌人,自我武装和第三方的潜在能力,可以量化不确定事件的发生概率和随之而来的损失。通过条件预期选择极端事件样本,以获得每种风险的量化描述。提出了三种量化结果的分析方法。

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