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首页> 外文会议>Transportation Research Board Annual meeting >AN APPROACH TO INCORPORATE UNCERTAINTY AND RISK IN TRANSPORTATION INVESTMENT DECISION MAKING: DETROIT RIVER INTERNATIONAL CROSSING CASE STUDY
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AN APPROACH TO INCORPORATE UNCERTAINTY AND RISK IN TRANSPORTATION INVESTMENT DECISION MAKING: DETROIT RIVER INTERNATIONAL CROSSING CASE STUDY

机译：制定运输投资决策中的不确定性和风险的方法：底特律河国际交叉案例研究

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Large scale transportation projects represent major investments devoted to theconstruction, operation, and maintenance of facilities over an extended period. Typically,these investments are irreversible in nature and require long-term commitment by thepublic at large relative to utilization, maintenance, and operation. Traditional economicanalysis techniques used to evaluate the financial feasibility of such projects are basedupon the assumption of deterministic future cash flows that are not subject to anyuncertainty and risk. In reality, many of these projects are associated with significantuncertainties and risks stemming from lack of knowledge about future cost and benefitstreams. There is a lack of comprehensive literature in addressing uncertainty and risk intransportation investment decision making.The authors present a framework for addressing uncertainty and risk for largescale transportation investments involving joint participation by the public and privateentity. Demand, fare/toll, and demand responsive costs are considered in the uncertaintyanalysis. A bi-level programming is proposed, where the upper level constitutes thepreference of the policy maker, and the lower level determines the user’s response to thepolicy. The uncertainty analysis provides economic feasibility of the transportationproject. A set of relaxation policies is proposed to form various Ownership, Tenure, andGovernance (OTG) strategies reflecting the nature and level of participation by the publicand private entity. The uncertainty analysis output serves as input to the risk analysis.Monte Carlo Simulation is used to address risks for feasible policy options selected fromuncertainty analysis. The concept of Value at Risk (VaR) is used to quantify risk. Amethodology is proposed to integrate uncertainty and risk. The framework is tested on theproposed multibillion dollar international river crossing entitled as the Detroit RiverInternational Crossing (DRIC) connecting the city of Detroit in the US and the city ofWindsor in Canada. The combination of both uncertainty and risk reveals insights to theprobable outcomes for a transportation infrastructure investment. This methodology canbe used as a tool for transportation infrastructure investment decision making process.
机译：大型运输项目代表着对 长时间的设施建设，运营和维护。通常， 这些投资本质上是不可逆的，需要投资方做出长期承诺。 相对于利用，维护和运营而言，公众是普遍的。传统经济 用于评估此类项目财务可行性的分析技术 假设确定的未来现金流量不受任何 不确定性和风险。实际上，这些项目中有许多与 由于对未来成本和收益缺乏了解而产生的不确定性和风险 流。缺乏综合的文献来解决风险中的不确定性和风险。 交通投资决策。 作者提出了一个解决大型项目不确定性和风险的框架 大规模的运输投资，涉及公共和私营部门的共同参与 实体。在不确定性中考虑了需求，票价/通行费和需求响应成本 分析。提出了一个双层编程，其中上层构成了 政策制定者的偏好设置，而较低的级别则决定了用户对 政策。不确定性分析提供了运输的经济可行性 项目。提出了一系列放松政策，以形成各种所有权，保有权和 反映公众参与性质和水平的治理（OTG）策略 和私人实体。不确定性分析输出用作风险分析的输入。 蒙特卡洛模拟用于解决选自以下方面的可行政策选择的风险 不确定性分析。风险价值（VaR）的概念用于量化风险。一种 提出了综合不确定性和风险的方法。该框架已在 拟议的数十亿美元国际底河穿越活动称为底特律河 连接美国底特律市和美国底特律市的国际穿越（DRIC） 在加拿大的温莎。不确定性和风险的结合揭示了对 运输基础设施投资的可能结果。这种方法可以 用作交通基础设施投资决策过程的工具。

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