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NON-STATIONARY ESTIMATION OF JOINT DESIGN CRITERIA WITH A MULTIVARIATE CONDITIONAL EXTREMES APPROACH

机译:具有多变量条件极值方法的联合设计标准的非静止估计

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Understanding the interaction of ocean environments with fixed and floating structures is critical to the design of offshore and coastal facilities. Structural response to environmental loading is typically the combined effect of multiple environmental parameters over a period of time. Knowledge of the tails of marginal and joint distributions of these parameters (e.g. storm peak significant wave height and associated current) as a function of covariates (e.g. dominant wave and current directions) is central to the estimation of extreme structural response, and hence of structural reliability and safety. In this paper, we present a framework for the joint estimation of multivariate extremal dependencies with multi-dimensional covariates. We demonstrate proof of principle with a synthetic bi-variate example with two covariates quantified by rigorous uncertainty analysis. We further substantiate it using two practical applications (associated current given significant wave height for northern North Sea and joint current profile for offshore Brazil locations). Further applications include the estimation of associated criteria for response-based design (e.g., T_P given H_S), extreme current profiles with depth for mooring and riser loading, weathervaning systems with non-stationary effects for the design of FLNG/FPSO installations, etc.
机译:了解海洋环境与固定和浮动结构的相互作用对于近海和沿海设施的设计至关重要。对环境负荷的结构响应通常是多个环境参数在一段时间内的组合效应。了解这些参数的边缘和联合分布的尾部(例如风暴峰值显着波浪高度和相关电流)作为协变量(例如主导波和电流方向)是估计极端结构响应的核心,因此结构可靠性和安全性。在本文中,我们提出了一种与多维协变量的多变量极值依赖性联合估计的框架。我们证明了原理的证据,用合成的双变化实例,具有通过严格的不确定性分析量化的两种协变量。我们进一步利用两个实际应用(相关的电流为北海的关键波浪高,以及海上巴西地区的联合电流剖面)。进一步的应用包括估算基于响应的设计的相关标准(例如,T_P给定H_S),极端电流配置文件,用于系泊和提升管装载的深度,风化系统,具有FLNG / FPSO装置的设计的非稳定性效果等。

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