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Understanding the change in streamflow of an inland river as a response to regional climate change in Northwest China

机译:了解内陆河流的水流变化以响应中国西北地区的气候变化

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The hydro-climatic process in arid areas is an important academic issue, which has been paid more and more attentions since the 1990s. But to date, it has not received satisfactory answers. From a perspective of multi-time scales, this paper studied the relationship between the stream flow of an inland river and its related climatic factors in the arid area of northwest China by an integrated approach combining wavelet decomposition (WD), multiple linear regression (MLR), and back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN), and investigated the Yarkand River in the southern Xinjiang as a case study. The results show that the annual runoff (AR) was mainly affected by the annual average temperature (AAT) and annual precipitation (AP), which revealed different variation patterns at five time scales. At the 16- year and 32- year scale, AR basically presented a monotonically increasing trend with the similar trend of AAT and AP. But at 2-year, 4-year, 8-year and 16-year scale, AR presented nonlinear variation with fluctuations of AAT and AP.
机译:干旱地区的水文气候过程是一个重要的学术问题,自1990年代以来受到越来越多的关注。但是到目前为止,它还没有收到令人满意的答案。从多时间尺度的角度出发,采用小波分解(WD)与多元线性回归(MLR)相结合的综合方法,研究了西北干旱区内陆河水流量及其相关气候因子之间的关系。 )和反向传播人工神经网络(BPANN),并以新疆南部的叶尔and河为例进行了研究。结果表明,年径流量(AR)主要受年平均温度(AAT)和年降水量(AP)的影响,在五个时间尺度上揭示出不同的变化模式。在16年和32年的规模上,AR基本上呈现出单调增长的趋势,与AAT和AP的趋势相似。但是在2年,4年,8年和16年的尺度上,AR呈现出随AAT和AP波动的非线性变化。

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