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On the Development of Voter Transition Models for Social Choice Markov Decision Processes

机译：社会选择马尔可夫决策过程的选民过渡模型的发展

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Social Choice Markov Decision Processes (SCMDP) have recently been proposed for use in online advocacy groups as a means for optimizing the voting process. In our paper, we extend the scope of this approach to the political context. We argue that SCMDPs can be useful tools for political campaigns and other initiatives to increase candidate popularity and satisfaction among constituents. We propose a survey-based methodology to construct a parsimonious voter transition model, which in turn provides the experimental foundation for the optimizing SCMDP. Based on hypothetical survey data, we have parameterized various voter transition models and implemented corresponding SCMDPs. The overall approach was validated through sensitivity analysis and simulation. Our results clearly show that decision processes in the political arena can benefit from this approach, especially when voters behave dynamically with respect to a policy maker's actions. A dynamic decision policy is noticeably better than a more "simplistic" scheme such as pure majority-based election.
机译：最近，社会选择马尔可夫决策过程（SCMDP）被提议用于在线倡导团体，作为优化投票过程的一种手段。在我们的论文中，我们将这种方法的范围扩展到了政治背景。我们认为，SCMDP可以成为进行政治运动和其他倡议的有用工具，以提高候选人在选民中的知名度和满意度。我们提出了一种基于调查的方法来构建简约的选民过渡模型，从而为优化SCMDP提供了实验基础。基于假设的调查数据，我们对各种选民过渡模型进行了参数化，并实现了相应的SCMDP。通过敏感性分析和仿真验证了整体方法。我们的研究结果清楚地表明，在政治舞台上的决策过程可以从这种方法中获益，尤其是当选民们对于政策制定者的行动动态表现。动态决策策略明显优于诸如纯粹基于多数的选举之类的“简化”方案。

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