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DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH ON U.S. AIR PASSENGER AND FREIGHT SERVICES

机译:经济增长对美国航空客运和货运服务的动态影响

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This paper examines the short- and long-run effects of economic growth and market shocks (e.g., 9/11 terrorist attacks, Iraq war, SARS epidemic, and 2008 financial crisis) on air passenger and freight services using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration. Results show that, in the long-run, both air passenger and freight services tend to increase with economic growth. In the short-run, however, only air passenger service is responsive to economic growth. Finally, only the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the SARS have detrimental effects on air passenger demand both in the short- and long-run, and in the long-run, respectively. However, those market shocks are found to have little impact on air freight demand.
机译:本文使用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)研究了经济增长和市场冲击(例如9/11恐怖袭击,伊拉克战争,SARS流行病以及2008年金融危机)对航空客运和货运服务的短期和长期影响)进行协整的方法。结果表明,从长远来看,航空客运和货运服务都将随着经济增长而增加。但是,从短期来看,只有航空旅客服务才能对经济增长做出响应。最后,无论是短期还是长期,只有9/11恐怖袭击和SARS分别对航空旅客需求产生不利影响。但是,发现这些市场冲击对空运需求几乎没有影响。

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