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首页> 外文会议>Transportation Research Board Annual meeting >Have Graduated Driver License Programs Reduced Teen Driving Error Related Fatal Crashes? A Local Level Approach to Estimating the Safety Effects of GDL Programs
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Have Graduated Driver License Programs Reduced Teen Driving Error Related Fatal Crashes? A Local Level Approach to Estimating the Safety Effects of GDL Programs

机译：毕业驾驶执照计划是否减少了与青少年驾驶有关的致命撞车事故？评估GDL计划安全效果的本地方法

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摘要

Motor vehicle accidents are the leading cause of death among teens age 15 to 19 in the U.S.Three stage programs that grant teens increasing driving privileges over time, GDL systems attemptto strike a compromise between allowing teens to gain the experience needed to attain good drivingskills, while limiting teen driving in high risk contexts, such as carrying young passengers and drivingat night. Using a panel data set of teen driver involved fatal vehicle crashes among 16 to 17 year olddrivers in commuting zones straddling state borders, I estimate the effect of GDL programs andtheir components on teen driver and teen driver error related fatal crash rates using a state borderpolicy discontinuity design. Additionally, I analyze the impacts on crash characteristics most likelyassociated with teen driving mistakes, such as the presence of young occupants, occurring at night,or involving alcohol. The method used takes into account local heterogeneities in factors affectingaccident rates, providing more credible identification than previous studies. My findings indicatemuch larger GDL effects than in the extant literature. I find that the strongest GDL programs, asrated by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, reduce teen driving related fatal crash rates by25 to 34 percent and teen driving error related fatal crash rates by 34 to 45 percent. The mosteffective components of GDL programs were early nighttime driving curfews beginning between6pm to 10pm. Passenger restrictions had statistically significant effects only when controlling for thenumber of licensed teens on the road. For example, the zero to one passenger limit reducedquarterly county-level teen driver involved fatal crash rates per 100,000 by -6.4 points per quarter,relative to a mean rate of 9.5 in state-periods without restrictions. These passenger limits were alsohighly effective at reducing nighttime crashes among teens, with a reduction in these crash rates of -5.9 per 100,000. Finally, the extended practice period during which newly licensed teens are onlyallowed to drive under adult supervision were effective in reducing fatal crashes per unit population.However, when controlling for the share of licensed teen drivers, practice periods were onlyimportant for nighttime crashes occurring after 9pm.
机译：在美国15至19岁的青少年中，机动车事故是导致死亡的主要原因。 GDL系统尝试通过三个阶段的计划，使青少年随着时间的推移获得越来越多的驾驶特权 在让青少年获得获得良好驾驶所需的经验之间达成妥协 技能，同时限制高风险情况下的青少年驾驶，例如载送年轻乘客和驾驶 在晚上。使用青少年驾驶员的面板数据集，涉及16至17岁之间的致命车祸 跨州边界的通勤区中的驱动程序，我估计了GDL程序的效果， 他们的组件在青少年驾驶员和青少年驾驶员错误上使用状态边框的致命崩溃率 政策不连续性设计。此外，我分析了最有可能对碰撞特性造成的影响 与青少年的驾驶错误相关，例如夜间发生的年轻乘员， 或涉及酒精。使用的方法考虑了影响因素的局部异质性 事故率，比以前的研究提供了更可靠的识别。我的发现表明 与现有文献相比，GDL的影响要大得多。我发现最强大的GDL程序 由公路安全保险协会（Insurance Institute for Highway Safety）评估，将与青少年驾驶相关的致命撞车率降低了 25％到34％的青少年驾驶错误导致的致命碰撞率下降了34％到45％。最多 GDL计划的有效组成部分是从晚上开始夜间宵禁开始 晚上6点至晚上10点。旅客限制仅在控制旅客人数时才具有统计学上的显着影响。 道路上有执照的青少年人数。例如，减少了零到一的乘客限制 县级青少年驾驶员每季度每10万人致命事故率每季度减少-6.4点， 相对于无限制状态期间的9.5的平均比率。这些乘客限制也 在减少青少年的夜间撞车事故方面非常有效，并且这些撞车事故的发生率降低了- 5.9 / 100,000。最后，延长执业时间，在此期间，仅获得新许可的青少年 允许在成人监督下驾驶可以有效地减少每单位人口的致命撞车事故。 但是，在控制有执照的青少年驾驶员的份额时，练习期只是 对于晚上9点以后发生的夜间崩溃很重要。

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