Short-term micro-grid load forecast method based on EMD-KELM-EKF

机译：基于EMD-KELM-EKF的微网短期负荷预测方法

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Short-term load forecasting is an important part of micro-grid economic dispatch, and the forecasting error would directly affect the economical efficiency of operation. With respect to large power grid environment, micro-grid is more difficult to realize the short-term load forecasting on the user side. This paper proposes a combined short-term load forecasting model based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and Extreme Learning Machine with Kernel (KELM). The time-series data of micro-grid load with high randomness is gradually decomposed into a number of Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) components through EMD. Two typical different prediction models — EKF and KELM — are adopted to predict different kinds of IMF components. The model prediction accuracy, the stability of period updating and the calculation efficiency is verified through examples analysis of micro-grid of the user side with different types and capacity.

机译：短期负荷预测是微电网经济调度的重要组成部分，其预测误差将直接影响运营的经济效益。对于大型电网环境，微电网更难以在用户端实现短期负荷预测。本文提出了一种基于经验模式分解（EMD），扩展卡尔曼滤波器（EKF）和带有核的极限学习机（KELM）的组合短期负荷预测模型。具有高随机性的微电网负荷的时间序列数据通过EMD逐渐分解为许多固有模式函数（IMF）分量。采用两种典型的不同预测模型EKF和KELM来预测不同种类的IMF组件。通过不同类型和容量的用户侧微电网实例分析，验证了模型的预测精度，周期更新的稳定性和计算效率。

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《International Conference on Intelligent Green Building and Smart Grid》|2014年|1-4|共4页
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Qingfeng Tang; Jianhua Zhang; Zhengyong Xie;
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combined forecast model; micro-grid; short-term load forecasting;

机译：组合预测模型;微电网;短期负荷预测;

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2. Bi-directional long short-term memory method based on attention mechanism and rolling update for short-term load forecasting [J] . Wang Shouxiang, Wang Xuan, Wang Shaomin, International journal of electrical power and energy systems . 2019,第JULa期

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3. A hybrid method based on neural network and improved environmental adaptation method using Controlled Gaussian Mutation with real parameter for short-term load forecasting [J] . Singh Priyanka, Dwivedi Pragya, Kant Vibhor Energy . 2019,第MAYa1期

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4. Short-term micro-grid load forecast method based on EMD-KELM-EKF [C] . Qingfeng Tang, Jianhua Zhang, Zhengyong Xie International Conference on Intelligent Green Building and Smart Grid . 2014

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Short-term micro-grid load forecast method based on EMD-KELM-EKF

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